FAR Rabat vs UTS Rabat: match statistics

FAR Rabat is a clear favorite at home: they have a 69% home win rate, 0% home losses and average 1.69 goals scored and only 0.54 conceded per home match. UTS Rabat sit 15th and have won just 23% of away games, scoring 1.00 and conceding 1.31 on average away, indicating a weaker defense on the road. Quality-of-chance metrics confirm the hosts’ advantage: FAR’s average home xG is 1.54 versus UTS’s away xG of 1.36, while xG against is 0.98 for FAR and 1.42 for UTS. Additionally, the hosts keep a clean sheet in 54% of matches and have a lower FTS of 15% with a higher conversion rate of 14%, whereas the visitors have only 8% clean sheets, FTS 31% and a 10% conversion. Considering recent form over the last 5 matches (FAR: 2 wins, 3 draws, 7 goals; UTS: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses, 5 goals) and the advantage in possession 56% vs 45% and shots 12.15 vs 9.77, I predict a home win.

Both teams show seasonal BTTS rates of 64% (FAR Rabat) and 62% (UTS Rabat), both above the league average of 50%. Both sides concede regularly — on average 1.43 (FAR) and 1.31 (UTS) goals per match — and keep a clean sheet rarely (14% and 8%). Offensive metrics support the likelihood of goals from both teams: xG 1.20 vs 1.36, xG against 1.39 vs 1.42, and average shots on target 3.43 and 4.46 with conversion rates of 11% and 10%. In the last 5 matches FAR has BTTS 60% and scores 1.4 goals on average (7 goals in 5), UTS has BTTS 40% and 1.0 goal (5 in 5), yet seasonally UTS has conceded 37 goals versus 17 conceded by FAR, which further increases the risk of goals from both sides. As a result I tip BTTS = YES with a probability of 75%.

Both teams have solid xG figures: FAR Rabat xG_for 1.20 and UTS Rabat xG_for 1.36, with xG against at 1.39 (FAR) and 1.42 (UTS), yielding a projection of 1.31 goals for the home side and 1.38 for the visitors, totaling ~2.69 goals. Seasonal data show a high probability of Over 1.5: FAR has 86% of matches >1.5, UTS 69%, and BTTS occurs 64% and 62% of the time respectively, which reinforces the scenario of at least two goals. Percentages for Over 2.5 are lower seasonally (FAR 29%, UTS 31%), and the last 5 matches give mixed signals (FAR 40% >2.5, UTS 20%), so I assess the chance of >2.5 at about 56%. Over 3.5 is unlikely — seasonally 14% (FAR) and 8% (UTS), hence an estimated ~12% for over 3.5; the strongest signal is therefore Over 1.5 (82%), based on the combined xG 2.69 and high seasonal shares of matches above 1.5.

At Half-Time the most likely outcome is a draw: the home side were level at the break in 71% of matches this season, and in the last 5 games the rate of half-time draws was 60% for hosts and 80% for visitors. First halves are typically low-scoring — hosts average 0.43 goals by half-time, visitors 0.46, which favors low-goal first halves. In the Second Half, however, the visitors hold the advantage: 86% of home matches saw at least one goal after the break, and visitors average 1.23 points in the Second Half versus 0.79 for hosts, winning 23% of second halves compared to 14% for hosts. Additionally, hosts win only 7% of matches at home this season, while visitors win 23% of fixtures, so the scenario draw at the break and visitor victory at full-time (X/2) is the strongest signal.