Farnham Town vs Chertsey Town: match statistics

Farnham Town demonstrates a decisive advantage in home matches with a 61% win rate and an impressive average of 2.39 goals per game. The hosts also possess a superior shot conversion rate (14% vs 10%) and dominate in possession (57% vs 51%). Chertsey Town shows weaker away form with a negative goal difference (-3) and only a 39% win rate in away matches. A key factor is the difference in offensive efficiency – the hosts score on average twice as many goals at home (2.39) as the visitors do away (1.17). Additionally, Farnham has better xG figures (2.45 vs 1.56), confirming the quality of chances created. Although the recent form of both teams is inconsistent, the advantage of home infrastructure and seasonal statistics points to a home victory.

Seasonal data supports BTTS: Farnham have a 56% BTTS rate, Chertsey 50%, while the league average is a high 60%. The recent form from the last 5 matches sends an even stronger signal (Farnham 80% BTTS, Chertsey 60%), combined with Chertsey's high goal output (2.2 goals per match) and the visitors' poor defense (2.0 conceded per match). The xG profile indicates genuine chances at both ends: Chertsey generate 1.56 xG while conceding as much as 1.67 xG, increasing the likelihood of the hosts scoring. Farnham average 2.06 goals scored per season, while Chertsey concede 1.33, making a home goal highly probable. Although both teams record some clean sheet percentages (28% and 33%), the hosts' low FTS rate (17%) and the visitors' recently improved finishing tilt the balance in favor of a both-teams-to-score scenario.

The goal model points to a high-scoring game (expected_goals_total 2.91), which is consistent with the high league average of 3.16 goals per match. Farnham at home shows very strong offensive numbers (2.06 goals/match, 5.31 shots on target) and a high Over 1.5 rate (78%), while Chertsey away also frequently plays matches with at least 2 goals (Over 1.5: 72%). Furthermore, the visitors' defense concedes high-quality chances (xG against 1.67) and leaks an average of 1.33 goals, supporting at least 2 goals in the match. On Chertsey's side, there is scoring potential in xG (1.56), and in the last 5 H2H matches their encounters have very often been over (Over 2.5: 100%), raising the baseline expectation for goals. The strongest signal is on the 1.5 line, as the combined shots/xG profile and historical frequencies of both teams clearly favor at least 2 goals.

The strongest signal points to a draw at half-time and a Farnham victory after the match. This is because Chertsey very often draws after 45 minutes (50%) and boasts a high CS% in the first half (78%) as well as a high FTS% (61%). At the same time, Farnham has been clearly stronger over the course of the season (PPG 1.89 vs 1.44; goals 2.06 vs 1.17) and converts chances into goals much more efficiently (19% shot accuracy vs 10%). The key factor is the hosts' second-half superiority: their second-half performance yields 2.11 ppg and a 61% win rate, conceding only 0.50 goals on average, whereas Chertsey loses more often in second halves (39%) and concedes an average of 0.94. The timing profile also favors a post-break turnaround scenario, as Farnham scores heavily in the final stages (10 goals in 76–90) and immediately after halftime (7 goals in 46–60), while Chertsey concedes relatively many goals during these phases (6 goals in 46–60 and 6 goals in 61–75).