FC Andorra vs Ceuta: match statistics

FC Andorra holds a clear advantage in attack and game control: at home they average 1.55 goals per match with an average xG of 1.79, while Ceuta away averages 1.05 goals per match and xG 1.09. Defensively the hosts also perform better — Andorra concedes 1.15 goals per home match on average, whereas Ceuta concedes 2.0 goals on the road; in the last 5 matches Andorra conceded 4 goals and Ceuta 8. Andorra’s superiority is supported by shot volume and possession: the hosts average 16 shots and 5.15 shots on target with 64% possession, versus 9.5 shots, 3.05 shots on target and 49% possession for Ceuta. The visitors also fail offensively more often — in 35% of away matches they fail to score compared to 20% for Andorra; over the last 5 matches Andorra scored 11 goals and Ceuta 6, translating to an average of 1.8 points per match for the hosts versus 1.2 points per match for the visitors. Considering the xG advantage (1.79 vs 1.09), higher shot volume (16 vs 9.5), stronger home record (home win rate 40% vs away win rate 20%) and the goal difference disparity (+8 at home for Andorra vs -19 for Ceuta away), the hosts are the favorites for this fixture.

Both teams have season BTTS rates of 60% (FC Andorra) and 55% (Ceuta), with a league average of 56%, which already favors the “yes” option. In the last 5 matches the picture is mixed: Andorra had BTTS in 40% of games, while Ceuta did so in 80%, producing a short-term average of 60% and indicating that at least Ceuta regularly features matches with goals at both ends. Looking at goals and xG, Andorra scores 1.35 goals on the season and 2.2 in the last 5 (11 goals), with xG 1.41 for the season and 1.93 in the last 5, while Ceuta concedes an average of 2.0 goals in the season and allows xG 1.7 (1.9 in the last 5), which strongly suggests Andorra has a high chance to score. On the other hand Ceuta scores 1.05 goals on the season and 1.2 in the last 5, and Andorra concedes an average of 1.15 goals in the season and only 0.8 in the last five games, so Ceuta’s chances to score are moderate but not nil. Considering season BTTS 60%/55%, league 56% and forms 40%/80% plus an xG advantage for the home side, I assign 62% to 'yes' and 38% to 'no' — best pick is 'yes', because Ceuta regularly concedes goals and Andorra generates sufficient chances to convert them.

I project a total of approximately 2.76 goals: FC Andorra about 1.56 and Ceuta about 1.20, based on average attack and defense (xG Andorra 1.41 vs xG conceded by Ceuta 1.7; xG Ceuta 1.09 vs xG conceded by Andorra 1.3). Andorra averages 11.95 shots and 4.45 on target per match, Ceuta 9.5 shots and 3.05 on target, with both teams posting shot conversion rates around 11%, which favors turning chances into goals. Seasonal shares of matches Over 1.5 are high: Andorra 70% and Ceuta 80%, therefore I estimate the probability of Over 1.5 at about 86%. Over 2.5 looks realistic (≈62%) given seasonal rates of 55% (Andorra) and 60% (Ceuta) and the last 5 matches where both teams had 60% of games Over 2.5; Andorra scored 11 goals in the last 5 matches (2.2 average), Ceuta 6 goals (1.2). Over 3.5 is less likely (≈26%) — seasonal rates are 20% and 35% and the expected total of 2.76 is clearly below 3.5, so I recommend betting Over 1.5 as the strongest signal.

The most likely scenario is the home side leading at half-time and winning at full-time (1/1) — the model assigns it 36%. The hosts led at the break in 9 of 20 home matches (45%), while Ceuta led at the break in only 4 of 20 away matches (20%), so the home advantage is already evident by half-time. Moreover, Andorra wins 55% of home games with an average return of 1.85 points per match, whereas Ceuta wins 20% of away games with 0.9 points per match, favouring a home victory at full-time. Offensively, Andorra records 11.95 shots and 4.45 on target with a home xG of 1.41, versus Ceuta’s 9.5 shots, 3.05 on target and xG_for of 1.09; Ceuta concedes an average of 1.70 xG on the road — this confirms the greater attacking strength of the hosts. Additionally, Ceuta has conceded 9 goals in the 31–45 minute window away, while Andorra scored 4 goals in the same period at home, and the average goals at half-time are 0.75 for the hosts against 1.05 conceded by the visitors; therefore 1/1 receives the strongest backing, with alternatives like X/1 (17%) and 2/2 (14%) being less likely.