FC Andorra vs Real Valladolid: match statistics

FC Andorra has a clear advantage in attack and form: they scored 14 goals in their last 5 matches (2.8 per game), while Real Valladolid has only 4 goals in their last 5 (0.8 per game). At home this season Andorra averages 1.47 goals and xG 1.74 per game with 15.59 shots and 5.06 shots on target, whereas Valladolid away averages 1.12 goals and xG 1.31 with 11.65 shots and 3.71 shots on target, translating into fewer high-quality chances for the visitors. Defensively Andorra also performs better: hosts concede 1.24 goals at home with xG against 1.08, while Valladolid concedes 1.65 goals away with xG against 1.51; additionally Valladolid fails to score in 35% of away matches versus 18% of Andorra’s home games without a goal. Form differences confirm this: Andorra won 3 of their last 5 and is averaging 2.0 points in that period, while Valladolid has 1 win and 0.8 points per game; the home goal difference is +4 versus the visitors’ -9 on the road. Considering the higher xG (1.74 vs 1.31), greater possession (63% vs 49%) and superiority in shots and efficiency over the last 5 matches (14 vs 4 goals), I assign a higher probability of victory to the home side.

I lean toward 'No' (BTTS - No) with a 55% probability versus 45% for 'Yes'. In the last 5 matches Real Valladolid averages 0.8 goals (4 goals in 5 matches) and only 20% of those fixtures saw BTTS, while FC Andorra in their last 5 matches scored an average of 2.8 goals (14 goals) and conceded an average of 1.2 goals. Season BTTS rates are 39% for FC Andorra and 47% for Real Valladolid, both below the league level of 55%, which weakens the overall signal for both teams to score. From the xG data there is theoretical goal potential (FC Andorra xG_for 1.67 vs Valladolid xG_against_away 1.51; Valladolid xG_for 1.31 vs Andorra xG_against 0.98), which would nominally imply about a 54–59% chance of BTTS, but the lower number of shots on target from the visitors (avg. 3.71) and their poor offensive efficiency in recent matches argue for caution and a preference for 'No'.

I project 1.59 goals for FC Andorra (xG 1.67 vs average xG conceded by Real Valladolid 1.51) and 1.15 for Real Valladolid (xG 1.31 vs xG conceded by Andorra 0.98), totaling 2.74 goals. A Poisson model with λ=2.74 yields probabilities: Over 1.5 ≈76%, Over 2.5 ≈52% and Over 3.5 ≈30%. Season metrics support this signal: home team has Over 1.5 in 56% of matches, away team in 71%, and the league records 49% of matches above 2.5 goals. FC Andorra scored 14 goals in their last 5 matches (2.8 avg), averaging 14.5 shots and 4.78 on target per game, while Real Valladolid concedes 1.65 goals on average this season with xG against 1.51, increasing the likelihood of at least two goals. Therefore the strongest pick is Over 1.5 (line 1.5, side: Over) at ~76% probability; lines 2.5 and 3.5 provide weaker signals (52% and 30%).

The analysis indicates a Half-Time/Full-Time outcome of draw at half-time and FC Andorra to win at full-time (X/1). The draw at the break is justified by the fact that the hosts had draws in 44% of their matches at half-time and the visitors in 35%, so HT deadlock occurs most frequently. After the break the hosts perform better: in the last 5 matches Andorra won 3 of 5 (60%) and averaged 1.8 goals after the interval versus 0.2 for Valladolid. Additionally, the quality of chances favors Andorra — the hosts’ xG is 1.67 compared to 1.31 for the visitors, with the hosts’ xG difference at +0.69 (1.67–0.98) while Valladolid shows −0.20 (1.31–1.51). On this basis I assigned X/1 a 30% probability; alternatives are 1/1 (20%) and X/X (18%), and scenarios with the visitors leading at the break were assessed collectively at about 14%.