FC Arouca vs CS Marítimo: match statistics

FC Arouca are showing clearly better current form: they have won 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring 11 goals in the process, while CS Marítimo have lost 2 games and conceded 7 goals over the same period. At home, Arouca have won every match so far, averaging 4 goals scored and conceding none, which contrasts with Marítimo conceding an average of one goal away from home. The hosts also create more chances, averaging 15 shots and 6 shots on target per match compared with 9 shots and 4 on target for the visitors, while their xG stands at 1.59, with just 0.58 xG allowed to opponents. Marítimo remain unbeaten away from home, but average only 33% possession and allow opponents chances worth 1.58 xG, which should favor a more proactive Arouca. The hosts’ advantage in current attacking efficiency, match control and defensive solidity points to an Arouca victory.

The scenario of both teams scoring is supported by the fact that Marítimo recorded BTTS in 100% of their matches so far, while neither team has yet finished a match without scoring. Arouca score an average of 1.5 goals, compared with 2.0 for Marítimo, while the visitors have kept not a single clean sheet. The hosts create an average of 1.41 xG, while Marítimo’s defense allows opponents 1.58 xG, giving Arouca solid grounds to score. On the visitors’ side, the average xG stands at 1.15, but Arouca’s defense allows opponents 1.37 xG, so their goal is also a realistic possibility. Recent form is less clear-cut, with BTTS recorded in 40% of Arouca’s five matches and 60% of Marítimo’s, so the lean towards BTTS - Yes remains moderate.

FC Arouca score an average of 1.5 goals per match, raising that figure to 2.2 over their last five fixtures, with 11 goals scored in total. Marítimo average 2.0 goals in their matches so far, have failed to keep a clean sheet once, and have both scored and seen at least 2 goals in every game. The xG model particularly favors the hosts: their average xG is 1.41, while their opponents allow 1.58 xG. Both teams recorded Over 2.5 goals in 60% of their last five matches, but with a projected total of 2.70 goals, Over 1.5 remains the safer and strongest option.

The strongest HT/FT scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a win for FC Arouca, as both teams were level at the break in 60% of their last five matches. During this period, Arouca conceded no goals before half-time, while Marítimo scored just 0.2 goals in the first half and conceded an average of 1.0. The home side’s advantage increases in the later stages of the match: across their last five appearances, they scored an average of 1.4 goals after the break, and at least one goal was scored in the second half in 100% of their matches. Overall form also points to Arouca, who have won 4 of their last 5 matches, averaging 2.2 goals scored and 0.8 conceded, compared with Marítimo’s averages of 1.2 scored and 1.4 conceded. The visitors remain dangerous, but their 2 defeats in the last 5 matches and failure to lead at the break suggest that the hosts will turn a balanced opening in their favor after half-time.