FC Cajamarca vs Sport Boys: match statistics

FC Cajamarca has the advantage in chance quality and finishing: at home they average 1.8 goals with 3.8 shots on target and a conversion rate of 18%, while Sport Boys on the road average 0.67 goals with 3.0 shots on target and roughly 7% conversion. However, recent form favors the visitors — FC Cajamarca has scored only 3 goals and averaged 0.2 points per match in the last 5 fixtures, conceding 9 goals, whereas Sport Boys scored 8 goals and average 1.4 points per match over the same period. Defensively both teams are very similar: the hosts concede 1.8 goals on average at home, and Sport Boys concede 1.83 goals away, which together with the higher overall goals average in the hosts’ matches (3.6 vs 2.5) points to a game with more goals. FC Cajamarca’s key edge is superior chance construction efficiency (1.8 vs 0.67 goals per match and 3.8 vs 3.0 shots on target), while Sport Boys’ main strength is a better return over the last five matches (8 goals and 1.4 points per match). Taking all this into account, I give a slight edge to the home side — 55% for an FC Cajamarca win, 25% for a draw and 20% for an away win.

I give the edge to the 'BTTS - Yes' scenario (65% vs 35%) because recent form and goal threat metrics favor both teams scoring. In the last 5 matches Cajamarca conceded on average 1.8 goals (9 conceded), while Sport Boys scored 8 goals in those 5 fixtures (1.6 per game), increasing the likelihood of a Goal/Goal outcome. Seasonally the hosts score 1.17 goals at home and have 50% clean sheets, whereas the visitors score 0.67 away and have only 17% clean sheets; seasonal BTTS is 50% (Cajamarca) vs 33% (Sport Boys). xG also supports the both-teams-to-score version — Cajamarca has xG_for 1.47 and xG_against 1.11, and Sport Boys xG_for 1.03 and xG_against 1.57, while in the last 5 rounds opponents generated on average around 2.1 xG per game against Cajamarca. Considering the league BTTS rate of 56% and the recent vulnerability of the hosts, the 'BTTS - Yes' scenario looks strongest.

The xG model projects about 2.59 goals in the match: FC Cajamarca ~1.52 (average of xG_for_home 1.47 and xG_against_away 1.57) vs Sport Boys ~1.07 (average of xG_for_away 1.03 and xG_against_home 1.11). Season-long metrics support Over 1.5 — home team has 67% of home matches over 1.5, away team 50%, and specifically 83% of Cajamarca’s matches and 100% of Sport Boys’ away games have ended with at least one goal. The 2.5 line is balanced: the sum of both teams’ xG_for is 1.47+1.03=2.50, but incorporating opposing xG yields a 2.59 forecast, and in the last 5 matches both teams recorded 60% of games over 2.5, hence I rate Over 2.5 at slightly above 50%. Over 3.5 is unlikely (approx. 18%), as season shares of Over 3.5 are only 17% for Cajamarca and 33% for Sport Boys, and the predicted xG is well below 3.5. Therefore the strongest signal from the data is Over 1.5, since the projected 2.59 goals along with season and last-5 Over1.5 rates (67% home, 50% away) give a clear edge.

Seasonal statistics show FC Cajamarca's advantage in attack: home xG is 1.47 versus 1.03 for the visitors, average shots on target 4.17 vs 3.0 and average goals 1.17 vs 0.67, which translates into greater scoring potential for the hosts. At Half-Time the hosts lead in 17% of matches, draw in 50% and trail in 33%, with average goals scored by half 0.33 vs 0.17 for the visitors, so the most likely state at 45 minutes is a draw. After the break FC Cajamarca clearly accelerates — they scored 4 goals in minutes 46–60 and average 0.83 goals in the second half while conceding 0.17 on average; additionally their average points in second halves is 2.33 versus 0.83 for the away side, which increases the chance of a turnaround. The visitors are relatively weak defensively — xG against them is 1.57, they concede on average 1.83 goals per match season-wide and collect only 0.5 points away versus 1.5 points at home, so they are vulnerable to conceding goals after the break. As a result the most likely and strongest signal is a Half-Time draw and a home win Full-Time (X/1), to which I assign the highest probability (28%).