FC Cajamarca vs Sport Huancayo: match statistics

FC Cajamarca holds a clear advantage in chance quality: at home they average 11.56 shots per match, of which 4.44 are on target, translating to 2.00 goals per match and a 17% conversion rate. Sport Huancayo away records average 10 shots and 3.3 on target, scoring only 1.00 goal per match with a 10% conversion, while conceding 2.4 goals per away match and carrying a negative goal difference of -14. In the last 5 fixtures Cajamarca scored 8 goals and collects 1.2 points per match, whereas Huancayo scored 7 goals and only 0.8 points with 10 goals conceded, indicating superior form effectiveness for the home side. Although the home xG is 1.26 versus the visitors’ 1.13, the superiority in actual goals (2.00 vs 1.00) and higher number of shots on target (4.44 vs 3.3) suggest Cajamarca converts their chances more efficiently. Considering Huancayo’s absence of away wins (0%), an 80% away loss rate and a high home draw percentage (44%), the probability favors the hosts.

A strong signal for BTTS - Yes is that both teams have high BTTS rates: FC Cajamarca 67% and Sport Huancayo 80%, with the last 5 matches at 100% and 80% respectively. Cajamarca averages 1.56 goals and has xG 1.86 per match, while Huancayo scores 1.0 and has xG 1.13; both concede on average 1.0 (Cajamarca) and 2.4 (Huancayo) goals, which increases the likelihood of goals from both sides. Low clean sheet expected rates of 22% (Cajamarca) and 10% (Huancayo) and recent runs (Cajamarca 100% BTTS in 5 matches) indicate defensive weakness and few shutouts. Additionally, Huancayo has 90% of matches over 2.5 goals, and the combination of over2.5 + BTTS occurs in 80% of Huancayo’s matches and 56% of Cajamarca’s; shot statistics (Cajamarca 17.67 shots/5.56 SOT, Huancayo 10.0/3.3) confirm both teams create scoring opportunities. On this basis I tip BTTS = 'yes' as the stronger scenario and estimate BTTS probability at 82% vs 18% for 'no'.

Expected goals calculated as the average of own attack xG and opponent defense xG are 1.77 for FC Cajamarca (average of xG_for_home 1.86 and xG_against_away 1.68) and 0.97 for Sport Huancayo (average of xG_for_away 1.13 and xG_against_home 0.81), totaling 2.74 goals. Seasonal stats show both teams frequently exceed the 1.5-goal threshold — hosts in 89% of matches, visitors in 90% — and BTTS is 67% (home) and 80% (away), confirming a tendency for goals at both ends. For the 2.5 line we have strong evidence: season Over2.5 is 56% for hosts and 90% for visitors, and in the last 5 matches 60% and 80% respectively, averaging close to 73% — therefore I project the probability of Over 2.5 at 72%. The 3.5 threshold looks unlikely: season Over3.5 is 11% and 40% (average ~25%), and the combined xG=2.74 is well below 3.5, so I rate Over 3.5 at 26%. Based on this data the strongest signal is Over 1.5 (89%/90% seasonOver1.5, 2.74 xG and high BTTS), hence the recommendation to play Over 1.5.

First-half statistics indicate a draw: FC Cajamarca go into the break level in 78% of home matches, while Sport Huancayo record a draw in 50% of away games. However, the hosts dominate after the break — Cajamarca average 1.11 goals in the second half and win second halves in 44% of cases, whereas Huancayo register only 0.4 goals and 0% second-half wins. The form gap is significant: Cajamarca average 1.89 points per game and 56% home wins, versus 0.2 points and 0% away wins for Huancayo; additionally the hosts’ xG is 1.86 compared to the visitors’ 1.13. Although the hosts lead at the break in only 11% of cases, their strong second-half numbers and the fact that Huancayo concede an average of 1.3 goals after the break point to a high likelihood of a turnaround and a full-time win for the hosts. Therefore the most probable and strongest signal is HT/FT draw/host win (X/1).