FC Cincinnati vs SJ Earthquakes: match statistics
FC Cincinnati vs SJ Earthquakes: form, goals and key statistics
Game details
FC Cincinnati played against SJ Earthquakes in MLS (United States). The game was played on August 1, 2026. Venue: TQL Stadium. Final score: 4:2.
Recent form
FC Cincinnati has 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses over its last five games, averaging 1.40 points per game. SJ Earthquakes has 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses, with 0.80 points per game.
Scoring records
FC Cincinnati scores 2.41 goals per game and allows 2.47. SJ Earthquakes scores 2.06 and allows 1.18. Games in this league average 3.23 goals.
BTTS and goal totals
Both teams score in 76% of FC Cincinnati's games and 59% of SJ Earthquakes's. The Over 2.5 rates are 71% and 59%, compared with league averages of 62% for BTTS and 62% for Over 2.5.
xG and shots
SJ Earthquakes has the higher season xG average, 1.61 to 1.52 per game. FC Cincinnati takes 13.3 shots per game, while SJ Earthquakes takes 14.2.
First-half and second-half trends
FC Cincinnati leads at halftime in 24% of its games and scores 1.29 goals per game after halftime. SJ Earthquakes leads at halftime in 41% and scores 1.12 after halftime.
When the teams score
FC Cincinnati's most productive scoring window is minutes 76-90+ (13 goals). For SJ Earthquakes, it is minutes 76-90+ (8 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.
League scoring profile
MLS games average 3.23 goals. Both teams score in 62% of games, and 62% finish with at least three goals.
Head-to-head record
There is not enough head-to-head history for a meaningful comparison.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
FC Cincinnati has clear offensive momentum: they scored 17 goals in the last 5 matches (avg. 3.4 per match) and collected 10 points in those five fixtures (avg. 2.0 per match), while SJ Earthquakes scored 6 goals (1.2 per match) and took 4 points (0.8 per match). At home the hosts average 3.0 goals with 14.88 shots and 5.88 shots on target per match, and their average xG is 1.61, whereas the visitors on the road register 9.13 shots, 3.75 on target and xG 1.11. Defensively disadvantageous for Cincinnati is that they concede 2.13 goals at home on average (xG against 1.77), while Earthquakes concede only 1.13 goals away, giving them a defensive edge. Additionally the visitors have a higher conversion rate (25% vs 20%) and 0% clean-sheet rate, but their form in the last five matches is weaker (only 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses) compared to the hosts' 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss. Considering Cincinnati’s offensive pressure (17 goals, more shots and higher xG) and the visitors’ poorer current form, the higher probability favors a home victory.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Seasonal BTTS rates are 44% for FC Cincinnati and 75% for SJ Earthquakes, versus a league average of 60%. In the last 5 matches Cincinnati recorded BTTS in 100% of games, and SJ in 60%; both teams conceded an average of 2.2 goals per game in that period. xG and shot analysis shows the hosts create significantly more chances: Cincinnati has 2.05 xG, 18.67 shots and 7.33 on target, while SJ concedes 1.68 xG to opponents; conversely SJ generates 1.11 xG with 9.13 shots and 3.75 on target, but has a higher conversion rate of 25% versus Cincinnati’s 10%. Seasonal goal totals are 41 scored and 42 conceded for Cincinnati, and 35 and 20 for SJ, while in the last 5 matches Cincinnati averaged 3.4 goals scored and SJ 1.2, which combined with the 2.2 goals conceded average suggests an elevated risk of both teams scoring. Considering the hosts’ 100% BTTS in the last 5, 75% BTTS for SJ away, and the combination of high xG for the hosts and efficient conversion from SJ, I forecast BTTS - Yes with a probability of 70% (No 30%).
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The model estimates total expected goals at 2.99: 1.87 for FC Cincinnati and 1.12 for SJ Earthquakes, which increases the likelihood of Over 2.5 goals. Seasonal indicators support this direction — FC Cincinnati have 56% of matches Over 2.5, SJ Earthquakes 63%, and the league average Over 2.5 is 62%; additionally, FC have had 100% of their last 5 matches Over 2.5. Hosts average 18.67 shots and 7.33 shots on target per match versus visitors' 9.13 shots and 3.75 on target; with conversion rates of 10% (Cincinnati) and 25% (SJ) this implies significant goal potential despite SJ’s lower chance volume. In their last 5 matches FC scored 17 goals (3.4 per match), and last5 xG are 1.62 for the home side and 1.68 for the visitors, indicating offensive dynamics close to 3.3 xG/match. Based on this I recommend Over 2.5 as the strongest signal (estimated probability Over 2.5 = 72%), while Over 1.5 is very likely (94%) and Over 3.5 remains less certain (35%).
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
FC Cincinnati generates significantly more chances already in the first half: the home team's average xG is 2.05 versus 1.11 for SJ, average shots 18.67 vs 9.13 and shots on target 7.33 vs 3.75, which suggests creative superiority before the break. In the last 5 matches Cincinnati led at the break in 50% of games, while the Earthquakes did so in only 20%, so a home lead at half-time is realistic. At the same time SJ has much stronger seasonal end-game metrics: 75% wins and 2.38 points per game versus 44% and 1.56 for Cincinnati, and a shot conversion rate of 25% vs 10% indicates the visitors can extremely efficiently capitalize on their chances. Additionally the Earthquakes frequently score shortly after rest (5 goals in minutes 46–60 versus 2 for the hosts), which supports a turnaround and takeover of the lead in the second half. For these reasons the safest signal is a FC Cincinnati lead at half-time and an SJ Earthquakes win after full-time (HT/FT 1/2).
View first-half and second-half statisticsStats by half
Game stats
Pre-game profile— what do the season numbers say?
This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.
Shooting quality
| FC Cincinnati | SJ Earthquakes | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 43% | 40% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.43 | 0.36 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.
FC Cincinnati is 75% better for: last-5 form.
1.4 pts / game - FC Cincinnati · 0.8 pts / game - SJ Earthquakes
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
FC Cincinnati is 17% better for: goals scored per game.
2.41 goals / game - FC Cincinnati · 2.06 goals / game - SJ Earthquakes
SJ Earthquakes is 109% better for: goals allowed per game.
2.47 goals / game - FC Cincinnati · 1.18 goals / game - SJ Earthquakes
FC Cincinnati scores in 88% of games (15 of 17 games), while SJ Earthquakes keeps a clean sheet in 29% (5 of 17 games).
SJ Earthquakes scores in 88% of games (15 of 17 games), while FC Cincinnati keeps a clean sheet in 12% (2 of 17 games).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these games cross the goal lines?
See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.
Full game - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - FC Cincinnati
Over / Under - SJ Earthquakes
1st half
2nd half
Game halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
SJ Earthquakes is 35% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.18 pts / game - FC Cincinnati · 1.59 pts / game - SJ Earthquakes
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
FC Cincinnati - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 24% of games and wins 35%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Allows 0.2 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
SJ Earthquakes - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 41% of games and wins 59%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Defense stays consistent across the full game.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / game | 1.6 | 1.8 |
| Goals allowed / game | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| Average goals per game | 3.0 | 3.4 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 100% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheet | 0% | 20% |
| No goal | 0% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +1 | +1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / game | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| Goals allowed / game | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Average goals per game | 2.2 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 80% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 0% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -1 | -3 |
* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (13 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (10). Late-goal balance (76-90): +3 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (8 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): +5 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.
Game profile
FC Cincinnati
SJ Earthquakes
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (MLS).
Teams vs league
| FC Cincinnati | Liga | SJ Earthquakes | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals per game | ▲ 4.88 | 3.23 | • 3.24 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 76% | 62% | ▼ 59% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 71% | 62% | ▼ 59% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 12% | 22% | ▲ 29% |
| Goal before half-time | • 76% | 77% | ▲ 88% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 88% | 80% | ▼ 71% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
FAQ
What was the result of FC Cincinnati vs SJ Earthquakes?
The MLS match finished FC Cincinnati 4:2 SJ Earthquakes. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before FC Cincinnati vs SJ Earthquakes?
FC Cincinnati score 2.41 goals per game on average and SJ Earthquakes 2.06. The MLS average is 3.23 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 62% of games. Both teams score in 76% of FC Cincinnati's matches and 59% of SJ Earthquakes's.
What form are FC Cincinnati and SJ Earthquakes in?
Over the last 5 games FC Cincinnati have a 2-1-2 record (1.40 points per game) and SJ Earthquakes 1-1-3 (0.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for FC Cincinnati vs SJ Earthquakes?
The statistical background for FC Cincinnati vs SJ Earthquakes — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.