FC Dallas vs St. Louis City: match statistics

FC Dallas are the favorites in this matchup: at home they average 2.5 goals per game and have scored 11 goals in the last 5 matches, while St. Louis have only 4 goals in their last 5 and average 0.33 goals away. The hosts generate more high-quality chances — 4.75 shots on target and 12.75 attempts per home game with an average xG of 1.40, versus St. Louis’s 3 shots on target and 12.67 attempts away with xG 1.32, but the key difference is conversion: 20% versus just 3%. Form also favors Dallas: in the last 5 games they averaged 1.6 points per game and have two wins in their last two matches, while St. Louis average 0.8 points per game and have three defeats in their last five. Defensively both teams are prone to conceding — Dallas concede 2.0 goals on average at home with xG against 1.05, and St. Louis concede 1.67 goals away with xG against 1.53, but Dallas are more clinical with the chances they create. Considering 11 versus 4 goals in form, the advantage in shots on target and the dramatically higher conversion, I assign 65% to the hosts, 20% to a draw and 15% to the away win.

St. Louis City has a very low attacking output away — seasonally 0.33 goals per game, only 5 goals this season and 3.0 shots on target with just a 3% conversion rate, and their away BTTS is 33%, which weakens the chance of both teams scoring. FC Dallas at home generates lots of chances: xG 1.94, on average 7.33 shots on target and 15 shots per game and seasonally 1.33 goals (last 5 matches averaging 2.2), so the hosts are likely to score. At the same time Dallas have kept no clean sheets at home (0% clean sheets) and have 67% home BTTS, which increases the likelihood of both teams scoring. However, the edge of signals against BTTS stems from the visitors’ low efficiency and poor form (last 5: avg 0.8 goals and form lllwd); although the visitors’ xG 1.32 suggests chances, their conversion is low. As a result I assign 40% to 'yes' and 60% to 'no', since St. Louis’s limited finishing efficiency appears decisive.

An xG-based model (FC Dallas generates on average 1.94 xG versus 1.53 xG conceded by St. Louis) projects 1.74 goals for Dallas and 1.17 for St. Louis, totaling 2.91 goals. With that mean, a Poisson distribution yields roughly a 79% chance of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5), about 56% for at least 3 goals (Over 2.5) and about 33% for at least 4 goals (Over 3.5). Additionally, Dallas has scored 11 goals in their last 5 matches (2.2 avg), averaging 15 shots and 7.33 on target, while St. Louis away averages only 0.33 goals scored and concedes 1.67, which increases the likelihood of home goals. Given these figures the strongest signal from the data is Over 1.5 — high confidence at 79% with a combined expected 2.91 goals; Over 2.5 remains moderately likely (56%), and Over 3.5 is unlikely (33%).

I project a half-time draw and a FC Dallas win after 90 minutes (X/1). Draws dominate at the break — the home side are level at half-time in 67% of matches and average 0.67 goals by HT, whereas St. Louis average 0.0 goals by HT and lead at the break in 0% of games. Dallas should convert their second-half advantage: their xG is 1.94 versus St. Louis’s 1.32, they average 7.33 shots on target compared to the opponent’s 3.0, and St. Louis concedes an average of 1.33 goals after the break. Season-long metrics reinforce this projection — Dallas score 1.33 goals per game and average 1.33 points per match versus 0.33 goals and 0.33 points for St. Louis — and recent form (home: D L D W W — 2 wins and 2 draws in last 5; away: L L L W D — 1 win and 3 losses) increases the likelihood of a turnaround after half-time.