FC Vizela vs Amarante: match statistics

FC Vizela have a clear home advantage: they won their only home match so far, scoring once and keeping a clean sheet. Amarante lost both away fixtures, conceding an average of 2 goals per match and recording neither a win nor a draw. The hosts also create higher-quality chances, with an average xG of 1.51 compared with 1.29 for the visitors, while allowing opponents an xG of just 0.97. Vizela average 14 shots at home, 3 more than Amarante manage away, with both teams registering exactly 4 shots on target. Both sides have collected 7 points from their last five matches, but Vizela’s more solid home defense makes a narrow home win the preferred pick.

The strongest signal is Vizela’s very poor finishing: the hosts have yet to score this season, while they have averaged just 0.4 goals across their last 5 matches. BTTS - Yes did not land in any of Vizela’s last 5 games, whereas Amarante saw both teams score in 40% of their five most recent appearances. Although Vizela averages 5 shots on target and has a season xG of 1.50, their current xG has dropped to 0.95, confirming their struggles to convert chances into goals. Amarante averaged 1.0 goal in their last 5 matches, while Vizela allowed opponents an xG of 1.55, giving the visitors a realistic chance of scoring. With the league BTTS rate standing at just 39%, the more likely outcome is BTTS - No, meaning that at least one team—most notably the hosts—will fail to score. This does not automatically mean a 0:0 draw or that neither team will score.

The league profile is clearly cautious: matches average 2.0 goals, and only 33% of them finish with at least three goals. Vizela have scored just 0.4 goals per game over their last five matches, while their average xG stood at 0.95, limiting the hosts’ attacking potential despite averaging 5 shots on target across the season. Amarante offer slightly better attacking output, averaging 1.0 goal and 1.20 xG in their last five matches, while conceding just 0.8 goals per game. In the teams’ last five matches, the 2.5-goal line was surpassed in only 20% and 40% of cases, respectively, while the combined projection of 2.15 goals remains clearly below the 3.5-goal barrier. Therefore, Under 3.5 offers the strongest edge, as it would require four goals in a match featuring a low league average and Vizela’s limited current attacking efficiency.

The most likely HT/FT outcome is a draw at half-time followed by an Amarante win, as both teams have been playing cautiously of late: Vizela average 0.8 goals in the first halves, while Amarante average 1.4. The hosts have scored just 0.4 goals per match across their last five games, failing to find the net in as many as 60% of those first halves. Amarante score an average of 1.0 goals per match and concede 0.8, whereas Vizela concede 1.2, giving the visitors a slight quality edge after the break. It is also significant that Vizela have failed to score in any of their last five second halves, conceding an average of 0.8 goals, while Amarante have allowed opponents just 0.2 goals after half-time. A draw after 45 minutes is supported by the low league averages of 0.94 away goals and 1.06 home goals per match, but the closing stages appear more favourable to Amarante’s stronger defensive record.