FC Vizela vs Benfica II: match statistics

FC Vizela presents a clearly superior run: the hosts have won 5 of their last 5 matches, scoring 11 goals in those games (2.2 per match) and averaging 3.0 points per match, while Benfica II have 2 wins in their last 5 and 5 goals (1.0 per match) with an average of 1.4 points. Vizela’s home metrics favor them: on average 13.23 shots with 5.08 on target and 56% possession, translating to an xG of 1.60 and 1.69 goals per match; Benfica II away average 9.92 shots and 3.85 on target, 46% possession and xG 1.23 (1.15 goals per match). Defensively Vizela also looks more solid over the long term: home average xGA 1.27 and 38% clean sheets, while Benfica II have higher away xGA 1.58 and only 15% clean sheets, suggesting greater susceptibility to conceding dangerous chances. It should be noted Benfica II conceded only 3 goals in their last 5 matches (0.6 per match), indicating a short-term defensive improvement, but a high away draw rate 54% and low win conversion 15% limit their ability to take full points on the road. Considering Vizela’s advantage in possession, shot volume, xG and a 5-win streak, I estimate the probability of a home win at around 65%, a draw 20% and an away win 15%.

I recommend BTTS - Yes. Season-long indicators show both teams score frequently: FC Vizela 57% and Benfica II 69% vs league average 47%. Vizela has a clear offensive edge — 1.57 goals per game, xG 1.93, 16.93 shots and 5.86 on target per match — indicating the home side will create scoring opportunities. Benfica II averages 1.15 goals with xG 1.23, only 15% clean sheets and has conceded 32 goals this season, so their matches often end Goal/Goal (69% BTTS). The last 5 matches add nuance: Vizela scored 11 in 5 (2.2 avg) with 60% BTTS, while Benfica II scored 5 in 5 (1.0 avg) with only 20% BTTS — this lowers confidence but does not negate the season trend. Considering season-long 57%/69%, Vizela’s strong xG and shot volume, and similar full-season goals conceded (31 vs 32), I assess BTTS probability at 65% vs 35% for No Goal.

xG estimates give 1.76 goals for FC Vizela (home xG 1.93 vs xG conceded to Benfica II 1.58 → (1.93+1.58)/2=1.76) and 1.20 for Benfica II (1.23 vs 1.17 → (1.23+1.17)/2=1.20), totaling 2.96 expected goals. Seasonally Vizela scores 1.57 goals on average and has Over 1.5 in 79% of matches; Benfica II scores 1.15 and has Over 1.5 in 77% of games, so historically at least two goals are highly likely. Vizela records 5.86 shots on target and 16.93 shots per game and has scored 11 goals in the last 5 matches (2.2 avg), which increases the chance of Over 2.5 despite weaker Benfica II numbers (3.85 on target, 9.92 shots, 5 goals in the last 5). Over 3.5 looks unlikely: season Over 3.5 is only 14% for Vizela and 15% for Benfica II, and the combined total 2.96 remains below 3.5. The strongest signal from the data is Over 1.5 (high frequency 79%/77%, xG 1.76+1.20=2.96 and Vizela form 5 wins with 2.2 goals in the last 5), therefore I recommend staking Over 1.5.

Vizela has a clear offensive advantage: on average 1.57 goals per match versus 1.15 for Benfica II, xG 1.93 vs 1.23 and 16.93 shots versus 9.92 with 5.86 on target vs 3.85, indicating greater attacking control by the home side. At half-time a draw is the most frequent state — the hosts are level at the break in 43% of matches, and Benfica II in 69% of their games, while Vizela leads at the break in 36% of matches — hence a pronounced probability of a draw HT. Vizela is, however, able to decide matches after the break: in the last 5 games they average 1.6 second-half goals, and 93% of their matches featured at least one goal after half-time, so conversion of an HT draw into a home win is realistic. Benfica II have poorer away form (only 15% wins) and lower xG (1.23 vs 1.93), so scenarios with an away victory at full-time are unlikely. Therefore the safest market is X/1 (draw at half-time, Vizela turnaround to win), which I estimate at 34%, while 1/1 I assess at 28% and the aggregate probability of a home win at 66%.