Ferencváros vs Zalaegerszegi TE: match statistics

Ferencváros are the favorites given their 2nd place in the table versus Zalaegerszegi’s 5th and a higher goal tally this season — 64 vs 49. In the last 5 matches the hosts have a record of 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss, scoring 10 and conceding 3, while the visitors have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses, scoring 8 and conceding 8; average points in the last 5 matches are 2.0 for Ferencváros and 0.8 for ZTE. The hosts’ strength is also visible in home metrics: 2.0 goals per game, xG 2.11, 17.2 shots per match of which 6.6 are on target and average possession 62%, whereas ZTE away averages 1.27 goals, xG 1.4, 11.8 shots and 4.47 on target with 49% possession. The hosts’ defense at home concedes 1.27 goals per game with xG against 1.11, while the visitors concede 1.4 away with xG against 1.8, suggesting ZTE is exposed to more clear-cut chances. Additionally the hosts fail to score in only 7% of home matches versus 13% of the visitors’ away matches and have a slightly higher shot conversion (12% vs 11%), therefore I predict a home win.

Ferencváros averages 1.76 goals scored and concedes 1.12 seasonally (xG_for 1.64; xG_against 1.37), indicating a solid attack and improved defense. Zalaegerszegi averages 1.27 goals scored and 1.40 conceded (xG_for 1.40; xG_against 1.80), meaning they have higher expected goals conceded than the hosts. Season BTTS rates are 53% for the home side and 60% for the visitors, while the league shows BTTS in 60% of matches, which favors a both teams to score scenario. However, in the last 5 matches Ferencváros has only 20% BTTS and has conceded 3 goals (0.6 avg), whereas Zalaegerszegi has 60% BTTS and conceded 8 goals in 5 matches (1.6 avg), suggesting the hosts’ recent form reduces BTTS probability. Hosts have 35% clean sheets vs 27% for visitors, and the share of matches in which a team failed to score is only 12% for Ferencváros and 13% for Zalaegerszegi, so a complete offensive shutout for both teams simultaneously is unlikely. Considering the higher league and seasonal BTTS rates (league 60%, season 53% and 60%), comparable xG figures and the fact that the visitors have recently been regularly both scoring and conceding, I assess BTTS at 60% vs 40% and pick BTTS - Yes.

Based on xG I project 1.72 goals for Ferencváros (xG for 1.64 vs xG against Zalaegerszegi 1.80) and 1.39 for Zalaegerszegi (xG for 1.40 vs xG against Ferencváros 1.37), yielding a total expected 3.11 goals. A strong signal for Over 1.5 is that the home side have had 82% of their season’s matches over 1.5 goals, the visitors 73%, and Over 0.5 occurred in 100% of matches for both teams; additionally Ferencváros have scored 64 goals this season and Zalaegerszegi 49, which supports an offensive scenario. For the 2.5 line the picture is mixed — season rates 47% (home) vs 53% (away) — but the combined projected total of 3.11 and 80% of the visitors’ last 5 matches being over 2.5 raise the probability of Over 2.5 to approximately 63%. Over 3.5 is less justified: season values are 35% for the home team and 27% for the visitors, and the 3.11 projection remains below 3.5, so I recommend the Under at that line. As a result, the clearest and strongest signal from the data is Over 1.5 (select Over at 1.5), supported by the 82%/73% rates and the expected 3.11 goals.

Ferencváros holds an edge in season-long metrics: they average 1.76 goals per game with an xG of 1.64, while Zalaegerszegi average 1.27 goals per game with an xG of 1.40. Additionally, in the last five matches the home side has a 60% win rate (3 of 5) versus 20% (1 of 5) for the visitors. At half-time the hosts score on average 0.65 goals compared to the visitors' 0.27, and Ferencváros led at the break in 5 matches (29%) versus 1 (7%) for Zalaegerszegi; simultaneously HT draws are common — the hosts had a draw at half-time in 7 matches (41%), and in their last five matches an HT draw occurred in 60%. The second half tends to produce decisive outcomes: the hosts average 1.12 goals after the break versus 1.00 for the opponents, and the statistic 'at least one goal after the break' is 100% for both teams, which raises the likelihood of a match-deciding goal coming in the second half. Ferencváros has also collected more points at half-time (22 vs 13) and shows a markedly stronger finishing form, supporting the view that the hosts are more likely to turn the result around after the break. Consequently the strongest signal from the data is a Half-Time draw with a home win Full-Time (X/1).