Fernando de la Mora vs Deportivo Capiatá: match statistics

Fernando de la Mora come into this match in noticeably better form: they have collected 8 points from their last five games, winning 2 and suffering just 1 defeat, while Deportivo Capiatá have managed only 4 points and lost 3 matches. During this period, the hosts conceded just 4 goals, compared with 10 for the visitors, indicating greater defensive stability for Fernando at present. At home, Fernando also create more chances, averaging 13.73 shots and an xG of 1.68, compared with just 7.91 shots and an xG of 1.14 for Deportivo away from home. Capiatá have not won a single away match this season and have drawn 55% of such games, so a draw remains a realistic alternative. However, home advantage, Fernando’s stronger recent defensive record and the visitors’ poor away form—Capiatá average just 0.64 goals scored away from home—all point towards a narrow Fernando de la Mora victory.

The BTTS - Yes pick is primarily supported by Fernando de la Mora’s profile: BTTS occurred in 82% of their matches, with just 18% ending with a clean sheet. The hosts are highly reliable offensively, averaging 2.00 goals, creating 1.58 xG, and recording 5.45 shots on target per match. Deportivo Capiatá average only 0.64 goals per season and failed to score in 36% of their matches, but the opponent’s defensive form gives them a realistic chance: Fernando de la Mora concede an average of 1.64 goals, while their xG against stands at 1.46. In their last five matches, the visitors recorded BTTS in 60% of cases, scored 6 goals, and produced 1.41 xG per match, while also conceding as many as 10 goals, further strengthening the prospects of a home-team goal. The BTTS scenario is therefore more likely than BTTS - No, although Capiatá’s poor seasonal finishing limits the strength of this pick.

Fernando de la Mora score an average of 2.00 goals at home, while Deportivo Capiatá concede 1.18 goals away, indicating a realistic chance for the hosts to score around 1.5 goals. However, the visitors score only 0.64 goals per away match, even though Fernando de la Mora’s defense concedes an average of 1.64 goals. The last five matches suggest a more open pattern: both teams recorded Over 2.5 goals in 60% of their games, while Capiatá conceded as many as 10 goals during this period. At the same time, only 9% of Capiatá’s away matches went over 3.5 goals, while 91% finished below this line. The Under 3.5 line therefore has a clear edge, as the projected total of 2.60 goals allows for a 2:1 or 1:1 result without requiring exceptionally high finishing efficiency from both sides.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Fernando de la Mora win, as the hosts were level after 45 minutes in 45% of their matches and in as many as 80% of their last five. Deportivo Capiatá do have a 64% half-time draw rate, but during the current run they were trailing at the break in 60% of matches and conceded an average of 1.2 goals in the first half, while Fernando de la Mora allowed opponents just 0.2 goals. After the break, the hosts score an average of 1.0 goal and have a positive goal difference, whereas Capiatá have won none of their second halves and score just 0.27 goals per match after half-time. The hosts’ advantage is also evident over the full match: they win 55% of their games and score an average of 2.0 goals, while the visitors have recorded no away wins and score only 0.64 goals. Recent form further supports this direction, with Fernando de la Mora losing just 1 of their last 5 matches, while Capiatá suffered 3 defeats and conceded an average of 2.0 goals.