Fernando de la Mora vs Guaireña: match statistics

Guaireña appears favored based on form and efficiency: in the last 5 matches they scored 4 and conceded only 2, averaging 1.8 points per game, while Fernando de la Mora (12th in the table) scored 5 and conceded 8 in their last 5 and average 0.8 points per game. The hosts generate more chances (avg. 15 shots and xG 1.82 per home match) and have 54% possession, but convert that into just 0.4 goals per game with a 3% finishing rate and 60% of matches without scoring. The visitors are more efficient in front of goal: 4.5 shots on target and 10 attempts away with an 8% conversion, translating to 0.75 away goals and better exploitation of created opportunities. Defensively they also look better in the short term — Fernando conceded 8 goals in the last 5 matches, Guaireña only 2, despite conceding 1.5 goals on average away. Considering the large difference in efficiency (3% vs 8%), the average points over the last 5 matches (0.8 vs 1.8) and the advantage in recent results, I predict a Guaireña win.

I back BTTS - Yes because xG models and recent form indicate both sides have scoring potential: Fernando de la Mora has xG_for 1.42 versus Guaireña xG_against 1.87, while Guaireña has xG_for 1.25 versus Fernando xG_against 1.35, translating to expected goal values around 1.4 and 1.3. Fernando averages 1.33 goals per season and recorded BTTS in 80% of their last 5 matches while conceding 1.6 goals on average; Guaireña averages 0.75 goals per season and conceded only 0.4 goals in their last 5, which gives a mixed away-signal. Additionally both teams produce a similar number of shots (12 vs 10) and shots on target (4.67 vs 4.5), and a conversion rate of 11% vs 8% favors chance conversion, so scoring opportunities are realistic for both sides. Against BTTS stands a high league clean sheet rate (61%) and Fernando’s seasonal 50% clean sheets, with seasonal BTTS rates of 33% for Fernando and 50% for Guaireña, which reduces the overall likelihood of both teams scoring. On balance I weigh the xG signals and the home side’s recent form more heavily and estimate BTTS probability at 58% for Yes and 42% for No.

Both teams have a high share of matches over 1.5 goals: Fernando de la Mora at home 67% and Guaireña away 75%, average 71%. My model combines xG and simple goal averages: home attack xG is 1.42, xG against Guaireña is 1.87 (average 1.64), an alternative model from actual goals (1.33 scored by the hosts and 1.50 conceded by Guaireña) gives 1.42; averaging yields 1.53 expected goals for the hosts. For the visitors attack xG is 1.25, xG against the hosts 1.35 (average 1.30), and the goals-based model (0.75 scored and 1.00 conceded) gives 0.88; averaged 1.09 goals for Guaireña, totaling 2.62 expected goals. Considering seasonal over 2.5 rates (50% for Fernando and 25% for Guaireña → average 37.5%), the last 5 matches (hosts over 2.5 60%, visitors 20%) and xG-total 2.62, I assign a moderate edge to Over 2.5 goals (52%), while Over 1.5 is the strongest signal (82%). Over 3.5 is unlikely: seasonal 33% and 25% (average 29%), so I prefer Under 3.5 (70%).

The most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and a home win at full-time (X/1) — I assigned it a 34% probability. A half-time draw is strongly supported by the data: the home side were level at the break in 50% of matches and the away side in 75%, yielding a heuristic estimate of roughly a 62% chance of a draw at half-time. After the break the home team holds a clear advantage — they score on average 1.00 goals in the second half versus just 0.25 for the visitors, and the home side accumulate 1.83 points in second halves compared to 0.25 points for the away team; visitors concede on average 1.25 goals after the break, which favors a turnaround. Additionally, the home team win 67% of matches this season while the visitors have 0% wins, the home side have higher xG (1.42 vs 1.25) and better shot conversion (11% vs 8%), so the advantage to full-time is significant. The scenario of the home team leading at half-time and holding on to win (1/1) is possible but less likely because the home side led at the break in only 17% of matches; therefore X/1 is the strongest signal.