Fernando de la Mora vs Tacuary: match statistics

Fernando de la Mora hold a slight edge in form: they have scored 7 goals and averaged 1.4 points per game over their last five matches, while Tacuary have scored just 3 goals and averaged 0.8 points. The hosts create significantly more chances at home, averaging 13.3 shots per match compared with Tacuary’s 6.6 away from home, while their xG stands at 1.61 versus 1.07 for the visitors. Fernando de la Mora concede 1.4 goals per home match, whereas Tacuary allow opponents an average of 1.9 goals away from home. The visitors frequently draw on the road, doing so in 50% of such matches, which makes a draw a realistic scenario. However, Tacuary’s weaker recent finishing and the hosts’ advantage in chance creation ultimately point towards a narrow Fernando de la Mora victory.

BTTS - Yes has a slight edge, as Tacuary have recorded BTTS in 70% of their league matches, clearly above Fernando de la Mora’s 50% and the league average of 55%. Fernando de la Mora have averaged 1.4 goals scored over their last five matches, while Tacuary have conceded 1.6 goals per game during this period, which supports the likelihood of a home goal. The visitors have a lower recent scoring average of just 0.6 goals, but their latest xG stands at 1.38, while the hosts have conceded an average of 1.2 goals and have kept a clean sheet in only 20% of their matches. In addition, both teams have kept clean sheets in just 20% of their matches this season, so their defensive records provide no strong argument for ruling out a goal from either side. The risk to the BTTS - Yes scenario is Tacuary’s weaker finishing in their last five matches, along with the visitors’ 40% BTTS rate during this period; therefore, the edge is not a strong one.

Fernando de la Mora averages 1.40 xG, while Tacuary allows an average of 1.38 xG, giving the home side a solid foundation to score. The visitors concede as many as 1.9 goals per match, while Fernando de la Mora have scored 7 goals in their last five matches and generated 1.76 xG per game. The 1.5 line has been surpassed in 60% of the home side’s matches and in 80% of Tacuary’s appearances, with both teams conceding at least one goal in 80% of their games. Although Tacuary have recently scored just 0.6 goals per match, their opponents concede an average of 1.3 goals, which is why Over 1.5 offers a clearer edge than the more demanding lines.

The strongest first-half signal is a draw: Tacuary were level at the break in 60% of their matches this season and in as many as 80% of their last five games, while both teams average just 0.5 goals before half-time. Over their last five matches, the average number of first-half goals was only 0.6 for each side, with Fernando de la Mora and Tacuary failing to score in the first half in 80% of their respective matches. After the break, the advantage should shift to the home side, who have averaged 1.2 goals over their last five fixtures, compared with just 0.4 for the visitors, who have also conceded 1.2 goals. Fernando de la Mora also have the better current points form, averaging 1.4 points per match compared with Tacuary’s 0.8, while the visitors have lost 60% of their last five games. Therefore, the HT/FT scenario of a draw at half-time followed by a home win is most consistent with a cautious opening and Fernando de la Mora’s greater effectiveness after the break.