Ferro Carril Oeste vs Almirante Brown: match statistics
Ferro Carril Oeste vs Almirante Brown: form, goals and key statistics
Game details
Ferro Carril Oeste played against Almirante Brown in Prim B Nacional (Argentina). The game was played on April 28, 2026. Final score: 0:1.
Recent form
Ferro Carril Oeste has 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses over its last five games, averaging 1.40 points per game. Almirante Brown has 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses, with 0.80 points per game.
Scoring records
Ferro Carril Oeste scores 0.78 goals per game and allows 0.78. Almirante Brown scores 0.67 and allows 0.89. Games in this league average 1.79 goals.
BTTS and goal totals
Both teams score in 33% of Ferro Carril Oeste's games and 33% of Almirante Brown's. The Over 2.5 rates are 11% and 33%, compared with league averages of 36% for BTTS and 28% for Over 2.5.
xG and shots
Ferro Carril Oeste has the higher season xG average, 1.37 to 1.17 per game. Ferro Carril Oeste takes 11.7 shots per game, while Almirante Brown takes 9.3.
First-half and second-half trends
Ferro Carril Oeste leads at halftime in 11% of its games and scores 0.67 goals per game after halftime. Almirante Brown leads at halftime in 22% and scores 0.33 after halftime.
When the teams score
Ferro Carril Oeste's most productive scoring window is minutes 76-90+ (3 goals). For Almirante Brown, it is minutes 0-15 (1 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.
League scoring profile
Prim B Nacional games average 1.79 goals. Both teams score in 36% of games, and 28% finish with at least three goals.
Head-to-head record
There is not enough head-to-head history for a meaningful comparison.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I expect a draw (X) and a low-scoring match. Ferro averages xG 1.73 at home with 15 shots and 3 on target, and 64% possession, yet scores only 0.33 goals per match and fails to score in 67% of home games. Almirante Brown on the road averages 8.2 shots with 2.4 on target, has a 7% finishing rate and keeps clean sheets in 60% of away matches, conceding 0.8 goals on average. In the last five matches Ferro has 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses (1.4 pts/match), while Almirante has 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses (0.8 pts/match), giving a slight form edge to the home side that does not translate into goals at home (0% home wins, home goal difference -3). Therefore I assign a 45% probability of a draw, 30% for a home win and 25% for an away win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Both teams score very few goals: Ferro 0.75 and Almirante 0.60 goals per match this season, and in the last 5 matches both averaged only 0.4 goals per match. Season BTTS rates are 25% for Ferro and 40% for Almirante (average ~33%), however the last 5 matches show a drop to 0% and 20% (average 10%), indicating a lower probability of Goal/Goal. Additionally Almirante keeps a clean sheet in 60% of matches, and the clean sheet rate in the league is very high (83%), which favors No Goal outcomes. Although Ferro has higher xG (1.42 vs 0.97) and more shots (10.75 vs 8.2), poor conversion 7% and low SOT (3.0 vs 2.4) suggest few goals, therefore I predict No BTTS (72% vs 28%).
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
I calculated expected goals as the average of the home attack xG and the opponent’s defensive xG: the home side have attacking xG 1.42 and xG conceded 1.08, so expected for Ferro = (1.42+1.08)/2 = 1.25; Almirante have attacking xG 0.97 and xG conceded by the hosts 1.17, so expected for the away side = (0.97+1.17)/2 = 1.07, total 2.32. With total λ=2.32 the Poisson distribution yields probability Over 1.5 ≈67% (Under 1.5 ≈33%), Over 2.5 ≈41% (Under 2.5 ≈59%) and Over 3.5 ≈20% (Under 3.5 ≈80%). Additionally, the hosts average 3.0 shots on target versus 2.4 for the visitors, with a 7% conversion rate for both teams, but season stats show low BTTS: 25% for the hosts and 40% for the away side, and 60% clean sheets for the visitors, while seasonal Over2.5 is only 25% (home) and 40% (away) with league average Over2.5 = 28%. Considering the combined xG of 2.32 and the relatively high probability of >1.5 (67%) alongside much lower chances for Over 2.5 (41%) and 3.5 (20%), the strongest play is Over 1.5.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
At half-time the most likely outcome is a draw: the home side were level at the break in 75% of matches (drawingAtHTPercentage_home = 75.0), while the away side were level in 60% (drawingAtHTPercentage_away = 60.0), with half-time average goals of 0.25 for Ferro and 0.4 for Almirante. Over the full match the home team are favorites: their xG is 1.42 versus 0.97 for the visitors, they average 10.75 shots to 8.2 and 3.0 on target to 2.4, and their home win rate is 50% compared to 20% for Almirante. The hosts perform better after the break — they average 1.75 points in second halves versus 1.0 for the away team and win 50% of second halves versus 20% for Almirante — hence a Half-Time draw/Full-Time home win scenario is logical. The counterargument is that the visitors led at the break in 40% of matches (leadingAtHTPercentage_away = 40.0) and had 100% clean sheets at half-time (seasonCSPercentageHT_away = 100.0), so a 2/1 turnaround (Half-Time away lead/Full-Time home win) remains a significant alternative. Based on this I indicate X/1 as the primary pick (36%), with X/X (18%) and 2/1 (18%) as the main alternatives; 1/1 is unlikely (4%) because the hosts did not lead at half-time this season (leadingAtHTPercentage_home = 0.0).
View first-half and second-half statisticsStats by half
Game stats
Pre-game profile— what do the season numbers say?
This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.
Shooting quality
| Ferro Carril Oeste | Almirante Brown | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 24% | 29% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.
Ferro Carril Oeste is 75% better for: last-5 form.
1.4 pts / game - Ferro Carril Oeste · 0.8 pts / game - Almirante Brown
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Ferro Carril Oeste is 16% better for: goals scored per game.
0.78 goals / game - Ferro Carril Oeste · 0.67 goals / game - Almirante Brown
Ferro Carril Oeste is 14% better for: goals allowed per game.
0.78 goals / game - Ferro Carril Oeste · 0.89 goals / game - Almirante Brown
Ferro Carril Oeste scores in 67% of games (6 of 9 meczów), while Almirante Brown keeps a clean sheet in 44% (4 of 9 meczów).
Almirante Brown scores in 56% of games (5 of 9 meczów), while Ferro Carril Oeste keeps a clean sheet in 44% (4 of 9 meczów).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these games cross the goal lines?
See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.
Full game - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Ferro Carril Oeste
Over / Under - Almirante Brown
1st half
2nd half
Game halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Almirante Brown is 71% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
0.78 pts / game - Ferro Carril Oeste · 1.33 pts / game - Almirante Brown
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Ferro Carril Oeste - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 11% of games and wins 33%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Defense stays consistent across the full game.
Almirante Brown - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 22% of games and wins 33%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Allows 0.5 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.0 | 0.4 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| Average goals per game | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 80% |
| No goal | 100% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -2 | +1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.2 | 0.8 |
| Average goals per game | 0.4 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 60% |
| No goal | 80% | 80% |
| Goal difference | 0 | -3 |
* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (3 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (3). Late-goal balance (76-90): +3 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (1 goal). Concedes most in 46-60 (4). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.
Game profile
Ferro Carril Oeste
Almirante Brown
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Prim B Nacional).
Teams vs league
| Ferro Carril Oeste | Liga | Almirante Brown | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals per game | ▼ 1.56 | 1.79 | ▼ 1.56 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 33% | 36% | ▼ 33% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 11% | 28% | ▲ 33% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 44% | 42% | ▲ 44% |
| Goal before half-time | • 56% | 57% | ▼ 44% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 78% | 69% | ▼ 67% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
FAQ
What was the result of Ferro Carril Oeste vs Almirante Brown?
The Prim B Nacional match finished Ferro Carril Oeste 0:1 Almirante Brown. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Ferro Carril Oeste vs Almirante Brown?
Ferro Carril Oeste score 0.78 goals per game on average and Almirante Brown 0.67. The Prim B Nacional average is 1.79 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 28% of games. Both teams score in 33% of Ferro Carril Oeste's matches and 33% of Almirante Brown's.
What form are Ferro Carril Oeste and Almirante Brown in?
Over the last 5 games Ferro Carril Oeste have a 2-1-2 record (1.40 points per game) and Almirante Brown 1-1-3 (0.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Ferro Carril Oeste vs Almirante Brown?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.