Firpo vs Inter: match statistics

Firpo have been outstanding at home: they have won all of their home matches so far, averaging 2.33 goals scored and conceding none. The hosts are also creating higher-quality chances, recording an average xG of 1.86 compared with just 0.99 xG conceded to opponents. Inter, however, are in excellent form, having scored 12 goals in their last five matches, winning four and remaining unbeaten throughout the season. Away from home, the visitors draw as many as 50% of their matches, while their xG against stands at 1.70, suggesting that their defense could struggle to contain Firpo’s attack. Home advantage, Firpo’s perfect record in front of goal at home and their clean-sheet record give the hosts a slight edge to win, although a draw remains a realistic outcome.

The strongest signal is the very low seasonal rate of matches in which both teams scored: 33% for Firpo and just 25% for Inter, compared with the league average of 49%. Both teams regularly keep clean sheets, in 67% and 75% of their matches respectively, while their average goals conceded stand at just 0.33 and 0.50 per game. Firpo have scored only 0.8 goals per match across their last five appearances, which clearly reduces the hosts’ chances of breaking through Inter’s solid defense, with Inter conceding just 0.6 goals per game during this period. Although Inter are enjoying a strong attacking run, averaging 2.4 goals in their last five matches, a one-sided result remains more likely than both teams scoring. The “BTTS - No” pick primarily indicates a high probability that at least one team will finish the match without scoring.

The strongest signal is the low defensive profile of both teams: Firpo concede an average of 0.33 goals at home, while Inter concede just 0.50 away from home. In their last five matches, Firpo have scored only 0.8 goals per game, while Inter’s defense has allowed opponents an average of 0.6 goals. Inter are in significantly better attacking form, averaging 2.4 goals scored in their last five appearances, but Firpo have conceded just 0.8 goals per match over the same period. Additionally, matches involving both teams have finished below 3.5 goals in 67% and 75% of cases, respectively, while both teams have kept a clean sheet in at least 67% of matches. The projected total of 2.45 goals indicates a preference for Under 3.5 goals, which also provides a margin for a 2:1 or 1:2 result.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by an Inter win, as Firpo were level at the break in 67% of their home matches, while Inter recorded a half-time draw in 50% of their away fixtures. The hosts score just 0.33 goals per match before the break at home and have yet to concede during this phase, which supports a cautious 0-0 HT/FT pattern. Inter are nevertheless clearly superior in current form: across their last five matches, they averaged 2.4 goals, won 80% of their games and remained unbeaten, whereas Firpo averaged 0.8 goals and recorded a 40% win rate. After half-time, Inter have recently averaged 1.8 goals, compared with just 0.2 for Firpo, while their second-half goal difference stands at +8 against +1 for the hosts. In addition, Inter’s season-long xG is 1.70, higher than Firpo’s 1.46, so following an even first half, the visitors have stronger grounds to turn the match in their favor.