First Vienna vs Sturm Graz II: match statistics

I back the home win (1): First Vienna holds a clear form advantage — in the last 5 matches they are 3-1-1 with 10 points (PPG = 2.0), while Sturm Graz II are 0-1-4 with only 1 point (PPG = 0.2). First Vienna scored 5 and conceded 2 in those 5 games (avg 1.0 scored and 0.4 conceded per match), whereas Sturm Graz II scored 3 and conceded 9 (0.6 scored and 1.8 conceded per match), meaning the visitors concede on average 1.4 more goals per game. The goal difference is +3 for the hosts versus -6 for the visitors, which translates into superior chance creation and finishing as well as a more stable defense for First Vienna. The absence of detailed home/away stats and xG in the provided data (many entries = 0) limits a full assessment of chance quality, but the numerical advantage (goals, points, results) clearly favors the hosts. Based on this I estimate probabilities of 70% for a home win, 18% for a draw and 12% for the away win.

Seasonal data are largely missing (values 0.0), so the analysis is based on the last 5 matches. In the last 5 fixtures First Vienna has BTTS 20% and averages 1.0 scored and 0.4 conceded, while Sturm Graz II has BTTS 60% and averages 0.6 scored and 1.8 conceded. In those five matches the home side scored 5 and conceded 2 overall, and the visitors scored 3 and conceded 9, which suggests a solid home defense and significant defensive issues for the visitors. xG from the last 5 matches is 1.14 for the home team and 1.29 for the away team, however Sturm Graz II converts far worse (0.6 goals versus 1.29 xG). A simple Poisson model on average goals gives P(First Vienna >=1)=63.2% and P(Sturm Graz II >=1)=45.1%, product ≈28.5% — an approximate BTTS probability around 28%. Considering the low home BTTS rate (20%), the visitors' poor finishing and the better form of the home side (form l5: WLWDW), the stronger signal is No Goal/No BTTS, therefore I recommend 'No' (No Goal).

Analysis of the last 5 matches shows First Vienna averaged 1.0 goals scored and 0.4 conceded, while Sturm Graz II averaged 0.6 scored and 1.8 conceded. xG from the last 5 fixtures are 1.14 for the home side and 1.29 for the visitors, and xG against are 1.71 (home) and 1.53 (away), which averaged gives expected goals of 1.34 for First Vienna and 1.50 for Sturm Graz II (total 2.84). A Poisson model at this total yields approximately a 77% probability of Over 1.5 goals, about 54% for Over 2.5 and around 31% for Over 3.5, so the strongest signal is for the over. Additionally, form and goal balance support this assessment: First Vienna have 5 scored and 2 conceded in their last 5 matches, while Sturm Graz II have 3 scored and 9 conceded, increasing the likelihood of goals from the visitors. As a result I recommend playing Over 1.5 as the best and most justified line.

I forecast First Vienna to lead at the break and win by full-time (1/1) as the most likely outcome. The hosts have led at half-time in 60% of their last five matches (3 of 5) and average 1.0 goals by the break while conceding 0.0. Across full matches First Vienna averages 2.0 points in their last five, whereas Sturm Graz II have only 0.2 points and have lost 80% of those five games, which strongly favors the home side. The visitors score an average of 0.6 goals per match and concede 1.8, with only 0.4 goals on average by half-time, so they rarely overturn deficits. Additionally, First Vienna have kept a clean sheet at the break in 100% of their last five matches; therefore I assign a 55% probability to the 1/1 scenario, with half-time draw or a turnaround outcomes given substantially lower probabilities (for example 1/X 12%, X/X 10%).