FK Bodo - Glimt vs Tromsø: match statistics

Bodo has a clear offensive advantage at home: average xG 3.07, with an average of 2.67 goals scored, 25.33 shots and 9.33 shots on target per match; Tromsø away have xG 1.30, averaging 1.33 goals with 10.33 shots and 4.67 on target. Defensively the hosts also look stronger — Bodo concedes only 0.33 goals per home match and keep 67% clean sheets, while Tromsø concede 0.67 away and have 33% clean sheets. The visitors, however, top the table (1st) with a 7-2-1 record on the season and remain unbeaten away, with an away shot conversion of 13%. In the last 5 matches Bodo scored 12 goals and Tromsø 7, both averaging 2 points per game in that period, which highlights the hosts’ superior goal output (12 vs 7). Given the large xG gap (3.07 vs 1.30), dominance in shot volume and possession (65% vs 45%) and stronger home defense, I predict a home win.

I back No BTTS — no both teams to score. FK Bodo/Glimt record 71% home matches with a clean sheet and only 14% BTTS, conceding on average 0.86 goals per game, a strong argument against both teams scoring. Tromsø away have 67% BTTS in away matches and average 1.33 goals scored (xG 1.30), but the hosts create noticeably more chances — 16.14 shots and 5.86 on target versus visitors’ 10.33 and 4.67 — and have offensive xG 1.88 against xG conceded 1.11, suggesting Bodo control the match. In the last 5 games BTTS occurred at 40% and Bodo concede on average 1.0 goal, so confidence is reduced, but comparing the hosts’ 71% CS with visitors’ 67% away BTTS and league averages (BTTS 48%, CS 56%) leads to a 70% assessment for 'No' and 30% for 'Yes'.

The model projects a total of approximately 2.96 goals: 1.71 for FK Bodo - Glimt and 1.25 for Tromsø (sum 2.96). Bodo at home score on average 1.86 goals with an xG of 1.88, and in the last 5 matches record xG 2.5 and 2.4 goals scored per game, indicating clear offensive form. Tromsø away average 1.33 goals with xG 1.30, and concede only 0.67 goals on the road over the season, which partially limits pressure; nevertheless their share of matches with >1.5 goals is 67%. Seasonal Over 2.5 rates are 43% for Bodo and 33% for Tromsø, but Bodo have 60% of their last 5 matches >2.5 goals, therefore I assess the probability of Over 2.5 at 62% and Over 1.5 at 86%. The strongest signal from the data is Over 1.5 (86%), hence the recommendation to play the over 1.5.

I back 1/1 (Bodo/Glimt leading at the break and winning) because the hosts produce a higher xG — 1.88 versus Tromsø’s 1.30 — and average 1.86 goals per game with 16.14 shots compared to the visitors’ 10.33, and 5.86 shots on target versus 4.67. The hosts have led at the break in 3 home appearances (43%) and average 0.57 goals by half-time, and 86% of their matches are clean sheets at the break, meaning that if a goal comes before half-time it is more often for them. After the break Bodo accelerates further — they score 1.29 goals on average in the second half, 86% of their matches have at least one goal after the break, and seasonally they concede only 0.86 goals per match while keeping a second-half clean sheet in 71% of games, which favors maintaining the lead. Taking these differences into account I assigned the 1/1 scenario the highest probability at 32%, with moderate support for a half-time draw and a home turnaround in the second half (X/1 25%) as an alternative, less likely outcome.