FK Minyor Pernik vs Dunav 2010: match statistics

Dunav 2010 holds a clear advantage in the table and results — they sit 1st (19-9-3) with 51 goals scored, while FK Minyor Pernik are 15th (7-9-15) with 31 goals. The visitors’ defense is noticeably stronger: Dunav have conceded only 15 goals this season (0.73 on the road), versus Minyor’s 43 and 1.2 per home match; in the last 5 games the hosts have conceded 10 goals (2.0 per match) compared to Dunav’s 6 conceded (1.2 per match). In terms of chance creation Minyor average xG 1.48 at home and 11.27 shots per game (5.47 on target), but they only convert ~9% of shots and fail to score in 47% of home matches; Dunav away have xG 1.36 with 9.93 shots (5.2 on target) and a higher conversion of ~15%, yielding 1.53 goals per match. Additionally the visitors keep clean sheets more often (47% of away games vs 27% home clean sheets for Minyor) and have a 53% away win rate versus the hosts’ 20% home win rate, therefore I forecast a Dunav win and estimate probabilities: away ~60%, draw ~25%, home ~15%.

I back No BTTS because the home side has a seasonal clean sheet rate of 81% and BTTS only 13%, a very strong defensive signal. The hosts score 1.75 goals per match with xG 1.52, while opponents against them generate only 0.70 xG, so expected chances for the visitors are low. The away team has a seasonal BTTS of 47% and averages 1.53 goals with xG 1.36, but they average just 5.2 shots on target with a 15% conversion, so they would need unusually high efficiency to breach the defense. In the last 5 matches both teams show 40% BTTS and the hosts conceded on average 2.0 goals in that period — a short-term deviation, but the long-term 81% clean sheet rate for the hosts prevails. Considering seasonConcededAVG_home 0.25 versus seasonConcededAVG_away 0.73 and xG_against 0.70 versus 1.37, I assign 72% probability to No BTTS and 28% to Goal/Goal.

Based on xG I calculate expected goals around 2.48: Minyor ~1.45 = (attacking xG 1.52 + opponent defensive xG 1.37)/2 and Dunav ~1.03 = (attacking xG 1.36 + home defensive xG 0.70)/2. A Poisson model with λ=2.48 yields probabilities: Over 1.5 ≈71%, Over 2.5 ≈45% and Over 3.5 ≈24%. Seasonal stats support this picture – Over 1.5 occurs for hosts in 69% and for visitors in 67% of matches, while Over 3.5 only in 19% (Minyor) and 27% (Dunav), averaging about 23%. Additionally Minyor scores on average 1.75 goals at home and keeps a clean sheet in 81% of home matches with only 0.25 conceded on average, which limits the risk of very high-scoring outcomes. Therefore the strongest signal is an Under on the 3.5 line (probability of Under ≈76%), although Over 1.5 also has a high weight (~71%).

The strongest signal is the 1/1 scenario: hosts lead at the break in 56% of matches and score on average 0.88 goals in the first half while conceding only 0.06, suggesting a typical 1-0 half-time score. Over the full match the hosts win frequently — they have a 69% win rate and an average points per match of 2.31 versus the visitors' 1.93, and they keep a clean sheet in 81% of games, so maintaining the lead is likely. Additionally, the hosts’ xG of 1.52 versus the visitors’ 1.36 and an average of 6.88 shots on target versus 5.2 confirm an attacking advantage, while guests concede 0.73 goals per match on average, more than the hosts (0.25). In the second half the hosts have accumulated 35 points and have a 63% win rate in that period versus the visitors’ 23 points and 40% wins, which increases the chance of holding the first-half lead. Based on this, I assign the highest weight to the 1/1 scenario, and combinations involving a turnaround receive much lower probabilities due to the high share of hosts’ clean sheets (81% FT, 94% HT) and the low average first-half goals conceded (0.06).