Flamengo vs Corinthians: match statistics

Flamengo lead the home standings and have won 16 of their 26 matches this season, while Corinthians are only 11th and have a record of 8 wins and 10 defeats. The hosts are in excellent form, winning 4 of their last 5 matches with a 9:3 goal difference, whereas the visitors have suffered 4 defeats over the same period and scored just 4 goals. At home, Flamengo average 2.00 goals per match, create chances worth 1.89 xG and register 5.50 shots on target, compared with Corinthians’ away figures of 1.08 goals, 1.18 xG and 3.08 shots on target. Flamengo’s defense concedes just 0.67 goals per home game and keeps a clean sheet in 58% of matches, while Corinthians lose 33% of their away fixtures. The hosts’ clear advantages in chance quality, current form and attacking efficiency strongly point to a Flamengo win.

The BTTS - No pick has a slight edge, as Flamengo keep a clean sheet in 43% of matches, while Corinthians fail to score in 17% of games. The hosts have conceded only 3 goals in their last 5 appearances, averaging 0.6 per match, whereas Corinthians have averaged 0.8 goals during the same period. Flamengo also have significantly better current attacking form: they have scored 9 goals in five matches, compared with just 4 for Corinthians, increasing the likelihood of a home win to nil. Although the visitors have a seasonal BTTS rate of 67%, Flamengo's 36% rate and the fact that only 40% of the hosts' matches in their last five rounds saw both teams score are stronger cautionary signals. Corinthians' high xG over their last five matches, at 1.70, limits confidence in the pick, but Flamengo's solid defense still supports the view that at least one side will fail to score.

Flamengo have averaged 1.8 goals scored and conceded just 0.6 over their last 5 matches, while Corinthians have scored 0.8 goals and allowed opponents to score 1.4. The hosts hold a favorable edge in chance quality: their season xG stands at 1.44, whereas Corinthians generate 1.18 xG away from home and manage just 3.08 shots on target per match. Despite Flamengo’s stronger current attacking form, both teams’ profiles limit the risk of a high-scoring game: Over 3.5 goals has landed in just 7% of Flamengo’s matches and 25% of Corinthians’ games. Flamengo have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their matches, while Corinthians have failed to score in 17%, further supporting the scenario of a controlled game. The strongest option is Under 3.5 goals, as the projected total of 2.35 goals remains comfortably below the line.

Flamengo are in clearly superior form: they have won 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring an average of 1.8 goals and conceding just 0.6, while Corinthians have lost 4 of their last 5 games, averaging 0.8 goals scored and 1.4 conceded. The strongest signal concerns the first half, as the hosts held a lead at the break in 80% of their last five matches, whereas the visitors have not led at half-time in any of them and were trailing in 60% of cases. In this run, Flamengo scored an average of 1.0 goals before the break and conceded none, while Corinthians scored just 0.2 goals and conceded 0.8. The hosts’ superiority is also evident in their overall season performance: their xG stands at 1.44 compared with the opponents’ 1.18, while their average number of shots on target is 4.21 versus Corinthians’ 3.08. The most likely scenario is therefore Flamengo leading at half-time and maintaining their victory, although the visitors’ high 57% rate of second-half draws limits confidence in the prediction.