Flamengo vs Coritiba: match statistics

I back the home win (Flamengo). Flamengo generates significantly more chances — average xG at home is 1.82 versus Coritiba’s 1.07 xG on the road, while average shots 16.71 to 9.78 and 5 shots on target per match vs 3.22 confirm offensive dominance. The hosts concede 1.00 goal at home on average, whereas Coritiba concedes 1.44 away and has a higher percentage of matches without scoring (22% vs 14%), which favors Flamengo. Additionally Flamengo wins 57% of home matches compared to Coritiba’s 44% away win rate, and the possession edge (55% vs 38%) should help control the game. Although Coritiba have scored 9 goals in the last 5 matches versus Flamengo’s 5, the overall superiority in chance quality and xG makes the hosts the favorite for this tie.

I back BTTS - Yes at 65% vs 35% because multiple indicators strongly favor both teams scoring. League BTTS is 59%, while seasonal BTTS rates are 50% for Flamengo and 44% for Coritiba, providing a solid baseline for goals at both ends. In the last 5 matches Flamengo has only 20% BTTS (1/5) and averaged 1.0 goals scored vs 1.2 conceded (5 scored, 6 conceded), whereas Coritiba has 60% BTTS (3/5) and averaged 1.8 goals scored and 2.0 conceded in those 5 matches (9 scored, 10 conceded). Season-long data show both teams allow many chances – xG against 1.77 (Flamengo) and 1.81 (Coritiba) – and Coritiba posts a higher shot conversion 16% vs Flamengo 12%; additionally Flamengo’s last 5 matches show xG for 2.2 but only 1.0 goals scored, indicating variance and situational potential. Considering the league average of 2.68 goals per match and seasonal scoring averages 1.56 (Coritiba) vs 1.25 (Flamengo) with season goals conceded 21 vs 16, the Both Teams To Score scenario looks stronger.

I project a total of approximately 2.89 goals: 1.47 for Flamengo and 1.42 for Coritiba, calculated as the average of each team's attack and the opponent's defensive susceptibility ((1.13+1.81)/2=1.47 and (1.07+1.77)/2=1.42). Seasonal averages confirm a goals-oriented tendency – Flamengo scores 1.25 on average, Coritiba 1.56, totaling 2.81 goals, while the league average is 2.68. Form also matters: in the last 5 matches Coritiba scored 9 goals (1.8 avg) and Flamengo 5 (1.0 avg), and Flamengo’s recent xG over five games is 2.2, which increases the likelihood of additional finishes. Season percentages show over 1.5 occurs in 63% of Flamengo’s matches and 78% of Coritiba’s matches, so I estimate the probability of over 1.5 at about 75%. I assess Over 2.5 at a moderate ~62% and Over 3.5 at around 28%, therefore I recommend Over 1.5 as the safest and strongest option.

Coritiba has a clear advantage in the first half: the visitors have scored 14 goals at the break this season versus Flamengo’s 5, with first-half averages of 0.89 vs 0.38, so a Coritiba lead at the break appears most likely. Over the full match Coritiba averages 1.56 goals compared to Flamengo’s 1.25 and has a higher win rate (44% vs 38%), while the teams’ xG is similar (Flamengo 1.13 vs Coritiba 1.07), which further favors the visitors. In the last 5 matches the gap is even more pronounced: Coritiba scored 10 first-half goals versus Flamengo’s 3 and led at the break in 40% of games, whereas Flamengo did not lead at the break in those 5 matches (0%). However, Flamengo concedes only 0.25 goals on average before halftime and keeps a clean sheet at halftime in 75% of home games, which increases the chance of an HT draw and also supports the X/2 scenario. Considering Coritiba’s advantage in goals at the break and higher overall effectiveness, the strongest signal is 2/2 (Coritiba leads at half-time and wins).