Flamengo vs Vitória: match statistics

Flamengo sit 2nd, while Vitória are 13th, and the difference is reflected in their full-season records: 11 home wins compared with 7 victories for the visitors. The hosts are unbeaten in their last five matches, scoring 12 goals and conceding just 2, whereas Vitória have scored only 1 goal in their last five games and suffered 3 defeats. At home, Flamengo average 1.89 goals with an xG of 1.90, produce 17.33 shots per match and record 5.56 shots on target, clearly outperforming Vitória’s away figures of 0.64 goals, xG 1.13 and 3.64 shots on target. The visitors’ defense concedes an average of 2.18 goals away from home and keeps a clean sheet in just 9% of matches, while Flamengo lose only 11% of their home fixtures. Vitória have not won a single league match away from home, making Flamengo clear favorites.

The strongest signal points against BTTS - Yes: Flamengo’s defense keeps a clean sheet in 70% of home matches and concedes just 0.70 goals on average there. Vitória are particularly weak offensively away from home, averaging 0.64 goals scored, and have netted just 1 goal in their last 5 matches—0.2 per game. Across those five games, the visitors did not record a single Goal/Goal result, while Flamengo conceded only 2 goals, averaging 0.4 per match. The hosts should, however, create chances against a Vitória defense that concedes an average of 2.18 goals away from home and records clean sheets in just 9% of matches. A one-sided Flamengo victory, with Vitória failing to score, is clearly more likely than BTTS. In betting terms, BTTS - No means that at least one team fails to score; it does not automatically mean a 0:0 draw or that neither team will score.

Flamengo are clear favorites, having scored 12 goals in their last 5 matches—2.4 per game—while conceding just 2. Vitória have scored only 1 goal over the same period (0.2 per match), with an average xG of 1.08, while Flamengo’s defense allowed opponents an xG of 1.01. The hosts kept a clean sheet in 70% of their matches this season, whereas the visitors failed to score in 45% of games and exceeded 1.5 goals scored in only 9%. Although Vitória’s weak defense, conceding an average of 2.18 goals, gives Flamengo a chance to secure a controlled victory, 80% of the hosts’ matches and 64% of the visitors’ games finished Under 3.5 goals. The strongest signal therefore points to Under 3.5, as the data supports a 1–3 goal outcome, while Vitória’s very limited attacking potential reduces the risk of a high-scoring game.

Flamengo led at half-time in 5 of their 10 home matches, while Vitória have never been ahead at the break and went into half-time trailing in 64% of their away fixtures. The hosts concede only 0.5 goals per match before the break, whereas Vitória score just 0.18 goals during this period, strongly supporting the scenario of a Flamengo lead at half-time. The quality gap over the full match is equally pronounced: Flamengo average 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded, while Vitória score 0.64 and allow opponents to score 2.18 goals away from home. In their last five matches, Flamengo averaged 2.4 goals scored and 0.4 conceded, whereas Vitória managed just 0.2 goals scored and conceded 1.6. The most likely outcome is therefore an HT/FT scenario in which the hosts take the lead before half-time and hold on to it until the final whistle: 1/1.