Flamurtari vs Teuta Durrës: match statistics

Flamurtari, playing at home, show stronger offensive form: they have scored 11 goals in their last 5 matches and won 3 of those 5 fixtures, averaging 2.2 points per game in that run, while Teuta have just 1 goal and 0 points in their last five outings. At home Flamurtari average 1.18 goals with 3.76 shots on target and xG 1.33, whereas Teuta away average 0.65 goals with 2.71 shots on target and xG 1.20; the hosts also convert chances better (11% vs 7%). On the other hand the visitors are more watertight defensively on the road — they concede 0.94 goals per match and keep 47% clean sheets, while Flamurtari concede 1.29 goals at home and have only an 18% clean sheet rate. Considering the hosts' superiority in chance creation and efficiency (11 goals vs 1 in the last 5) and Teuta's crisis (0 wins and 1 goal in five matches), I favor Flamurtari to win, although a draw remains plausible due to Teuta's defensive solidity.

I project BTTS = No as more likely (65% vs 35%) due to the visitors’ poor attacking form. Teuta scored just 1 goal in their last 5 matches (0.2 avg) and only 20% of those games produced BTTS; seasonally they average 0.65 goals per game and failed to score in 47% of matches. Flamurtari have 11 goals in their last 5 (2.2 avg) and home BTTS stands at 59%, but the hosts concede 1.06 goals per game on the season and 0.8 in the last 5, indicating they can be breached. In terms of chance quality Teuta generate xG ~1.1–1.2, yet their conversion rate is only 7% versus Flamurtari’s 11%, so the visitors do not convert chances into goals. In summary: the hosts are likely to find attacking rhythm, but the strongest signal is Teuta’s lack of finishing, therefore BTTS = No is more probable.

Combining both teams' xG yields an expected 1.13 goals for Flamurtari (xG attack 1.18 vs opponents' defensive average 1.08) and 1.08 for Teuta (xG attack 1.20 vs hosts' defensive average 0.96), totalling 2.21 goals. Flamurtari is in considerably better form — 11 goals in the last 5 matches (2.2 per game) with a 3W-2D record, while Teuta has lost 5 straight and scored only 1 goal in that run (0.2 per game). Additionally, Flamurtari has a higher shot conversion rate of 11% versus Teuta's 7%, increasing the likelihood of chances being converted, although Teuta records a high away clean sheet rate (47%), which partially limits the risk of a very high-scoring affair. A Poisson model with a mean of 2.21 gives roughly a 65% probability for Over 1.5, around 38% for Over 2.5 and about 18% for Over 3.5, therefore I recommend Over 1.5 as the strongest signal.

The most likely scenario is a draw at half-time: Flamurtari were level at the break in 53% of matches, and Teuta also in 53%, so a draw at half-time (X) dominates the HT statistics. A draw at full-time is also a frequent outcome — Flamurtari have 47% draws this season, which further supports the X/X scenario. On the other hand, the home side are clearly in better form over the last 5 games (60% wins and an average of 2.2 goals per game vs 0% and 0.2 goals for Teuta), which increases the probability that the half-time draw could be overturned after the break in Flamurtari’s favor. Flamurtari also score more before half-time (0.65 vs 0.18) and earn an average of 1.41 points at the break compared to Teuta’s 0.88, so the safest scenario is X/X (24%), with significant alternatives X/1 (21%) and 1/1 (17%).