Fleury 91 vs Villefranche: match statistics

Both teams are in the lower half of the table: Fleury 91 are 18th, while Villefranche are 16th, with the hosts still without a win after 4 rounds. Fleury have yet to score at home in 2 matches, despite creating chances worth an average of 1.10 xG and registering 4.5 shots on target per game. Villefranche score an average of 1 goal away from home, but have lost both of their matches on the road so far and concede as many as 2.5 goals per game there, with 1.66 xG allowed to opponents. The hosts have shown a clearly more solid defensive setup at home, conceding just 1 goal per match and keeping two clean sheets in half of their games. Fleury’s poor finishing and the visitors’ highly unstable defense point to a balanced, rather cautious encounter in which a draw is the most likely result.

The BTTS - Yes pick is primarily undermined by Fleury 91’s poor finishing: the team has averaged just 0.4 goals over its last 5 matches and failed to score in 50% of its games this season. The hosts also have a season BTTS rate of 0%, while BTTS has occurred in only 40% of each team’s last five appearances. Villefranche do not keep clean sheets away from home and concede an average of 2.5 goals there, giving Fleury a chance to score, but their xG is only 0.95, with 7 shots per match. The visitors should pose a threat, having averaged 1.2 goals and an xG of 1.14 over their last 5 matches, but the hosts’ low attacking output and the league-wide BTTS rate of just 31% point more strongly toward a scenario in which at least one team fails to score. This supports BTTS - No, which means that at least one team does not score; it does not automatically imply a 0:0 draw or that neither team will score.

The projected total of 2.35 goals is close to the league average of 2.22, while only 31% of matches in this competition have gone Over 2.5 goals. Fleury average just 0.97 xG and have scored only 0.4 goals per game across their last five matches, despite Villefranche conceding an average of 2.5 goals. The visitors have slightly greater attacking potential, with 1.15 xG and 4 shots on target per game, but Fleury have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their home matches so far. In the last five matches involving both teams, the 2.5-goal line was exceeded in just 40% of cases, which does not support the scenario of an open game. Under 3.5 offers the strongest edge, as even with both teams' recent defensive weaknesses, at least four goals would be required, while their combined attacking profile points more toward a total of 1-3 goals.

The strongest scenario is Villefranche leading at the break and maintaining their advantage until the final whistle, although the data points to a match with a higher-than-usual level of uncertainty. Fleury have not won any of their last five matches, averaging just 0.4 goals scored and conceding 2.0, while Villefranche have scored 1.2 goals per game and won 20% of those fixtures. In the first halves of their last five matches, the hosts scored only 0.2 goals on average and were behind at half-time in 60% of cases, while the visitors averaged 0.6 goals before the break and were level at half-time in 40% of their matches. Villefranche also produce slightly higher average xG figures, 1.15 compared with Fleury’s 0.97, and register more shots on target, 4.0 versus 3.0. After the break, Fleury continue to struggle with finishing, averaging just 0.2 goals in their last five matches, which increases the likelihood that any advantage gained by the visitors will be maintained.