Flota Świnoujście vs Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce: match statistics

Flota Świnoujście holds a clear statistical edge: they have scored 40 goals this season versus Pogoń's 20, and in the last 5 matches the home side netted 12 goals compared to the visitors' 5. Form also favors the hosts — Flota in the last 5 fixtures has a record of 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss (average 2.0 points per game), while Pogoń has 1 win and 4 losses (0.6 points per game). At home Flota averages 11.2 shots per match and 5.4 on target with a conversion rate of 18%, whereas Pogoń away averages 9.78 shots, 5.11 on target and only 9% conversion, giving the hosts an advantage in finishing quality. Defensively the hosts look stronger as well — Flota concedes 1.08 goals per home match with average xG against of 1.46, while Pogoń concedes 1.67 goals away and allows xG against of 1.84, indicating a larger defensive gap for the visitors. Considering 40 vs 20 goals this season, better conversion (18% vs 9%) and significantly superior points in the last 5 matches (2.0 vs 0.6), I tip a home win.

Seasonal stats are mixed: Flota has BTTS at 25% and keeps a clean sheet in 33% of matches, while Pogoń has BTTS 75% and a clean sheet in only 17%, giving an asymmetric signal that the away side more often features Goal/Goal (75% vs 25%). In the last 5 matches Flota recorded BTTS in 100% of fixtures, scoring on average 2.4 and conceding 2.6 goals, whereas Pogoń had BTTS in 60%, averaging 1.0 goals scored and 2.4 conceded, so both teams have been conceding a lot recently. In terms of xG both teams generate around 1.2 xG per game (Flota xG_for 1.20, Pogoń xG_for 1.29), and their defenses allow 1.34 and 1.84 xG, with on average 5.0–5.11 shots on target per match, indicating real chances at both ends. Additionally Pogoń has markedly better finishing (9% vs Flota 3%) and with 36 and 37 goals conceded this season the likelihood of goals from both sides rises. Considering Pogoń’s high seasonal BTTS (75%), Flota’s last 5 matches (100% BTTS) and large average concessions of 2.6 and 2.4 in L5, I recommend BTTS - Yes with a probability of 65% versus 35% for No.

The xG-based model yields 1.52 xG for Flota Świnoujście (xG_for 1.20 vs xG_against_away 1.84 → average 1.52) and 1.32 xG for Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce (xG_for 1.29 vs xG_against_home 1.34 → average 1.32), totaling ~2.84 expected goals. Under a Poisson distribution with λ=2.84 the probability of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5) is ~78%, at least 3 goals (Over 2.5) ~54%, and 4+ goals (Over 3.5) ~32%. Additionally, the hosts’ last 5 matches produced 12 goals scored and 13 conceded in 5 fixtures (avg 5.0 goals per game) and Flota have 100% Over 2.5 in their last 5, which strengthens the Over signal. Seasonal metrics also support this view: visitors have Over 1.5 in 83% of games, hosts 50%, and the league posts 55% of matches Over 2.5, so the strongest and most probable selection from the data is a play on Over 1.5.

Statistical analysis indicates Pogoń’s superiority over the full match: the visitors score on average 1.25 goals per game versus Flota’s 0.42, and xG is 1.29 vs 1.20, suggesting higher quality of created chances. A draw at Half-Time is highly likely — Flota records a Half-Time draw in 50% of matches, while Pogoń leads at the break in 36% of games (Flota led only in 17%), and average goals by Half-Time are 0.17 (Flota) vs 0.64 (Pogoń). Second halves are decisive: Pogoń earns an average of 1.36 points after Half-Time and wins 36% of second halves, whereas Flota has 0.67 points and only 8% second-half wins. Additionally, in 91% of matches the visitors scored at least one goal after the break, which increases the likelihood that following a Half-Time draw Pogoń will execute the turnaround in their favor; therefore the recommendation is X/2 (Half-Time/Full-Time).