Flota Świnoujście vs Pogoń Szczecin II: match statistics

I predict a home win for Flota Świnoujście. At home Flota has scored 47 goals this season, averaging 1.4 goals per home match, with 5.14 shots on target per game and a conversion rate of 16%, giving them an efficiency edge in front of their own fans. Pogoń Szczecin II have 56 goals this season and 11 goals in the last 5 matches, but away they score only 1.0 goal on average, have just 8% conversion and as many as 47% of away matches without scoring, while defensively they concede 2.33 goals per away game. Flota concede 1.33 goals at home and keep 27% clean sheets, whereas opponents have an away xG against of 2.02, indicating significant defensive vulnerability for Pogoń. Given Flota’s superior home attacking efficiency and Pogoń’s weaker defensive form on the road, I back a home victory.

Flota had BTTS in 81% of their matches this season, Pogoń II in 47%, and the league average is 51%, which already favors a both teams to score scenario. Offensively Flota generates xG 1.59 and scores 2.56 goals per game with 5.57 shots on target and a 17% conversion, while Pogoń II has xG 1.37 and averages 1.0 goal with an 8% conversion and 4.0 shots on target, so the home side is more efficient at converting chances. However both teams are prone to conceding: Flota concedes 1.75 goals per game and has only 19% clean sheets, and Pogoń II concedes 2.33 goals per game with xG against 2.02 and only 7% clean sheets, which greatly increases the likelihood that the visitors will score. In the last 5 matches both teams recorded BTTS in 60% of games, and Pogoń II averaged 2.2 goals in that period (Flota 1.4), suggesting the visitors may return to scoring form. Considering the seasonal 81% vs 47% BTTS, low clean sheet percentages (19% and 7%), high over 2.5 values (94% and 73%) and recent form, I predict BTTS - Yes with 70% probability and No 30%.

Flota Świnoujście averages 2.56 goals scored per match, Pogoń II 1.00; their xG are 1.59 (Flota) and 1.37 (Pogoń), while opponents generate 1.50 xG against Flota and 2.02 xG against Pogoń, yielding projected 1.81 goals for Flota and 1.43 for Pogoń, a combined 3.24 expected goals. Season-long over 1.5 rates are 100% for Flota and 87% for Pogoń (avg. 93.5%), and over 2.5 are 94% vs 73% (avg. 83.5%), confirming both teams’ propensity for high-scoring games. Flota converts at 17% on 13.21 shots per match, Pogoń at 8% on 10.15, and Pogoń concedes 2.33 goals on average away — this increases likelihood of chances from both sides. Given the 3.24 xG and high seasonal percentages, I estimate Over 1.5 at 97% (strongest signal), Over 2.5 at 84% and Over 3.5 at 52%. Recommendation: play Over 1.5 as the strongest, data-driven selection.

Flota Świnoujście holds a clear advantage at the break: they average 1.44 goals by half-time and were leading at the break in 6 matches (38%), while Pogoń II averages 0.53 goals by half-time and led only in 3 matches (20%). In the second half the hosts score an average of 1.13 goals and collect 1.5 points in second halves versus Pogoń’s 0.67 points, which suggests Flota maintains or extends their lead after the break. Additionally, Flota generates higher xG (1.59 vs 1.37), more shots on target (5.57 vs 4.0) and has a shot conversion rate of 17% compared to Pogoń’s 8%, so the offensive advantage is measurable. Pogoń were leading at half-time in only 3 matches and were trailing at half-time in 9 (60%), which increases the likelihood that Flota will be ahead at HT and hold the result to FT. Therefore the most likely scenario is 1/1 (Flota leading at Half-Time and winning Full-Time) with an estimated probability of about 32%, and as alternatives I consider half-time draw to home win (X/1 16%) and half-time draw/full-time draw (X/X 9%).