Fluminense vs Bahia: match statistics
Fluminense vs Bahia: form, goals and key statistics
Game details
Fluminense played against Bahia in Serie A (Brazil). The game was played on July 30, 2026. Venue: Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho. Final score: 0:0.
Recent form
Fluminense has 1 win, 3 draws and 1 loss over its last five games, averaging 1.20 points per game. Bahia has 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss, with 1.60 points per game.
Scoring records
Fluminense scores 1.50 goals per game and allows 1.25. Bahia scores 1.45 and allows 1.25. Games in this league average 2.62 goals.
BTTS and goal totals
Both teams score in 75% of Fluminense's games and 70% of Bahia's. The Over 2.5 rates are 50% and 50%, compared with league averages of 59% for BTTS and 49% for Over 2.5.
xG and shots
Fluminense has the higher season xG average, 1.68 to 1.61 per game. Fluminense takes 14.8 shots per game, while Bahia takes 14.4.
First-half and second-half trends
Fluminense leads at halftime in 45% of its games and scores 0.80 goals per game after halftime. Bahia leads at halftime in 35% and scores 0.70 after halftime.
When the teams score
Fluminense's most productive scoring window is minutes 76-90+ (8 goals). For Bahia, it is minutes 31-45+ (8 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.
League scoring profile
Serie A games average 2.62 goals. Both teams score in 59% of games, and 49% finish with at least three goals.
Head-to-head record
Before this game, 3 previous meetings were available. The record was 1 home win, 2 draws and 0 away wins. Those games averaged 3.33 goals, with both teams scoring in 67% of them.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Fluminense holds a clear home advantage: average possession 60% versus Bahia’s 51%, 17.3 shots per match versus 13.11, and 6.5 shots on target versus 4.33 for the visitors, translating to 1.95 xG for the hosts compared to 1.44 xG for Bahia. In practice Fluminense scores on average 1.8 goals per home game and has no matches without scoring (0%), while Bahia as an away side averages 1.33 goals per game and has 11% of matches without a goal. Defensively the hosts concede 1.1 goals per match with xG against 1.16, whereas Bahia concedes 1.56 goals away with xG against 1.87, indicating greater defensive stability for Fluminense. Both teams have similar season goal tallies (Fluminense 29 vs Bahia 28) and identical recent form in points per game over the last five matches (1.6 PPG), but Fluminense’s edge at home is also reflected in a 70% home win rate versus Bahia’s 44% away win rate. Therefore I back the home win, with a moderate probability of a draw given the overall seasonal parity between the sides.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Both teams show strong BTTS indicators: Fluminense records 70% of season matches with both teams scoring, Bahia 67%, and in the last 5 meetings both sides register 80% BTTS. Over the season Fluminense averages 1.6 goals scored (29 goals) and concedes 1.0, Bahia scores 1.33 (28 goals) and concedes 1.56, while in the last 5 matches the goal values are 1.4/1.0 for Fluminense and 1.6/1.2 for Bahia, indicating consistency on both ends. xG confirms offensive potential and defensive vulnerabilities: Fluminense has 1.79 xG and concedes 1.21 xG, Bahia generates 1.44 xG and concedes 1.87 xG, so both teams have realistic scoring chances. Fluminense averages 6.1 shots on target versus Bahia's 4.33, and clean sheet percentages are only 30% and 22%; additionally Over 2.5 occurs in 50% and 56% of matches, which reduces the likelihood of a 0-0. Based on the above data, I project BTTS at 75% (Yes) versus 25% (No) and recommend selecting "Yes".
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Combined expected goals from xG amount to approximately 1.83 for Fluminense (average of 1.79 xG attacking and 1.87 xG against Bahia) and 1.33 for Bahia (average of 1.44 xG attacking and 1.21 xG against Fluminense), giving a total of ~3.16 goals. Goal statistics confirm offensive pressure: Fluminense scores on average 1.6 goals per match, Bahia 1.33, and BTTS is 70% and 67% respectively, indicating both teams frequently score. Seasonal over1.5 occurs in 100% of Fluminense’s matches and 78% of Bahia’s, so I assess the probability of over1.5 at around 88%. The 2.5 line has weaker support (over2.5 50% for Fluminense, 56% for Bahia, league 51%), hence a moderate 54% for over2.5, while over3.5 is unlikely (10%/33%), so I assign it only ~22%. As a result the strongest signal from the data is a play on over 1.5 (over, line 1.5) based on the expected 3.16 goals and the high 100% vs 78% seasonal over1.5 rates and elevated BTTS.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Fluminense clearly outcreates Bahia: average xG 1.79 versus 1.44 for Bahia, and 15.7 shots with 6.1 on target per match compared to 13.11 and 4.33 for the opponent. At half-time the home side average 0.8 goals (Bahia 0.67), and in the last 5 matches Fluminense averaged 1.6 goals by the break versus 1.0 for Bahia, although Bahia led at the break in 44% of games versus 30% for Fluminense — the only risk signal in the first 45 minutes. Over the full 90 minutes Fluminense’s advantage is justified defensively — they concede 1.0 goals per game versus Bahia’s 1.56 and have a lower xG against (1.21 vs 1.87). Additionally, the hosts have scored 5 goals in minutes 76–90 this season versus 3 for Bahia, which increases the chance of holding a lead. Both teams score frequently (70% for Fluminense and 67% for Bahia), so goals from both sides are possible, but given the 1.79 xG, 6.1 shots on target and superior defense, the most likely scenario is 1/1 (lead at the break and a Fluminense win).
View first-half and second-half statisticsStats by half
Game stats
Pre-game profile— what do the season numbers say?
This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.
Shooting quality
| Fluminense | Bahia | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 37% | 35% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.
Bahia is 33% better for: last-5 form.
1.2 pts / game - Fluminense · 1.6 pts / game - Bahia
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Fluminense scores in 90% of games (18 of 20 games), while Bahia keeps a clean sheet in 25% (5 of 20 games).
Bahia scores in 95% of games (19 of 20 games), while Fluminense keeps a clean sheet in 15% (3 of 20 games).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these games cross the goal lines?
See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.
Full game - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Fluminense
Over / Under - Bahia
1st half
2nd half
Game halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Fluminense is 27% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.65 pts / game - Fluminense · 1.3 pts / game - Bahia
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Fluminense - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 45% of games and wins 45%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Allows 0.4 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
Bahia - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 35% of games and wins 40%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Defense stays consistent across the full game.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Average goals per game | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +1 | -1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Average goals per game | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 80% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +1 | +1 |
* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (8 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (8 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): +4 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.
Game profile
Fluminense
Bahia
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Serie A).
Teams vs league
| Fluminense | Liga | Bahia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals per game | ▲ 2.75 | 2.62 | • 2.70 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 75% | 59% | ▲ 70% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | • 50% | 49% | • 50% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 15% | 23% | ▲ 25% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 75% | 77% | ▲ 95% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 85% | 78% | ▼ 65% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Record from Fluminense's perspective: 1 win, 2 draws and 0 losses against Bahia. Games average 3.33 goals, and both teams scored in 67% of them.
FAQ
What was the result of Fluminense vs Bahia?
The Serie A match finished Fluminense 0:0 Bahia. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and Bahia?
In the last 3 head-to-head matches Fluminense won 1, Bahia won 0 and 2 ended level. These games averaged 3.33 goals, with both teams scoring in 67% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Fluminense vs Bahia?
Fluminense score 1.50 goals per game on average and Bahia 1.45. The Serie A average is 2.62 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 49% of games. Both teams score in 75% of Fluminense's matches and 70% of Bahia's.
What form are Fluminense and Bahia in?
Over the last 5 games Fluminense have a 1-3-1 record (1.20 points per game) and Bahia 2-2-1 (1.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Fluminense vs Bahia?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.