Foggia vs Audace Cerignola: match statistics

Foggia have a clear advantage in terms of chance creation at home, averaging 19 shots and 5 on target with 61% possession, while Audace Cerignola manage 12 attempts away from home, including just 2 on target. The hosts also create higher-quality chances, as reflected by an average xG of 1.81 compared with 1.46 for the visitors. Cerignola’s biggest weakness is their away defensive record: they concede an average of 3 goals per match and allow opponents an xG of 2.17. Neither team has kept a clean sheet in the analyzed conditions, and Foggia have scored in every home match, so this fixture could produce goals at both ends. Recent form has been inconsistent, but Foggia’s home draw and Cerignola’s away defeat, combined with the hosts’ advantage in controlling matches, point towards a narrow Foggia victory.

The BTTS signal is clear, as both teams have recorded this outcome in 100% of their matches this season, and neither side has kept a clean sheet. Foggia averages 3.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded at home, while Audace Cerignola scores 1.0 and allows opponents 3.0 goals on the road. Foggia’s recent form reduces confidence in the pick, having scored just 0.8 goals per game across its last five matches, but its xG remains at 1.36, while its defense allows opponents an xG of 1.43. Cerignola has recorded BTTS in 100% of its last five appearances, scoring an average of 1.6 goals and conceding 1.8, which increases the likelihood of goals at both ends. The hosts’ and visitors’ average xG figures of 1.44 and 1.46 respectively confirm the attacking potential of both teams, making a goal for each side the more likely scenario. BTTS - No means that at least one team fails to score; it does not automatically mean a 0:0 result or that neither team will score.

The strongest pick is Over 1.5 goals, as all matches in the current data set for both teams surpassed this line. Audace Cerignola averaged 1.6 goals scored and 1.8 conceded over their last 5 matches, with both teams scoring in 100% of those games. Foggia have been less effective recently, averaging just 0.8 goals per match, but their average xG stands at 1.36, while opponents created chances worth 1.43 xG against them. The visitors’ defense looks particularly vulnerable to conceding, having allowed 1.66 xG and conceded 9 goals in their last 5 appearances. The projected total of 2.64 goals is close to the league average of 3.3, making the 1.5 line a safer margin than the more evenly balanced Over 2.5 goals.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by an Audace Cerignola victory, as the visitors were level after 45 minutes in 80% of their last five matches, compared with 40% for Foggia. Foggia clearly weaken after the break: they average just 0.2 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, while as many as 80% of their last five second halves ended in defeat. Cerignola average 1.0 goals after half-time and 2.0 goals overall in this period, which favors turning an evenly balanced match in their favor. The current full-match form also favors the visitors, who average 1.6 goals compared with Foggia’s 0.8, while the hosts have lost 60% of their last five matches.