Foggia vs Sorrento Calcio: match statistics

Sorrento Calcio come into this match having won 4 of their last 5 fixtures and scored 8 goals in that run, while Foggia have failed to win any of their last five matches, recording 2 draws and 3 defeats. The visitors are highly effective away from home, averaging 2.33 goals per match with a 21% shot conversion rate, compared with Foggia’s averages of just 0.33 goals and a 2% conversion rate at home. Foggia do create more chances, averaging 18.67 shots and registering an xG of 1.88, but they fail to score in as many as 67% of their home matches, highlighting a serious problem with finishing. Sorrento have won all of their away matches so far, recording neither a draw nor a defeat, while Foggia have a 0% win rate at home and a -2 goal difference. Both defenses concede an average of 1 goal per match in these conditions, so the visitors’ advantage is primarily down to their significantly better form and greater efficiency in front of goal.

The signal for BTTS - No is primarily driven by Foggia’s defensive record, with the team keeping a clean sheet in 67% of home matches and conceding just 0.67 goals per game on average. Foggia has scored an average of 1.00 goals at home, but in its last five matches it managed only 0.6 goals per game, while both teams scored in just 40% of those fixtures. Sorrento has been effective away from home, averaging 2.33 goals and recording BTTS in 67% of matches; however, its last five games also produced BTTS in only 40% of cases. The hosts have an xG of 1.82 across their last five matches, yet their actual return is just 3 goals, increasing the risk that they will fail to convert their chances. The most likely scenario is therefore one in which at least one side fails to score, despite Sorrento’s attacking potential.

Sorrento score an average of 2.33 goals, but Foggia concede only 0.67 goals per home match and have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their games. The hosts average 1.00 goal scored, while their last five matches produced just 0.6 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game, limiting the prospects of a very high-scoring game. Chance-quality models point to a fairly even, but not exceptionally open, match: 1.23 xG for Foggia and 1.35 xG for Sorrento over the season, with a projected total of 2.47 goals. In addition, under 3.5 goals has landed in 100% of Foggia's matches and 67% of Sorrento's matches across the competition, making Under 3.5 goals the strongest-value bet.

Sorrento Calcio are showing significantly stronger current form: they have won 4 of their last 5 matches, while Foggia have failed to win any and have averaged just 0.6 goals per game. The visitors have been particularly strong starters, leading at the break in 60% of their last five appearances, whereas the hosts were behind at half-time in 60% of their matches over the same period. Sorrento average 1.0 goals scored before the break and concede just 0.2, while Foggia score 0.4 and concede 1.0 during that period. The visitors’ advantage is also evident across the entire competition, where they have won 100% of their matches, scored 2.33 goals per game and averaged 11.33 shots compared with Foggia’s 9.33. The most likely scenario is therefore that Sorrento take the lead before half-time and hold on to secure a full-time victory, making the 1/1 HT/FT outcome the likeliest selection.