Forest Green Rovers vs Carlisle United: match statistics
Forest Green Rovers displays impressive home form with a 63% win rate and an average of 1.88 goals per match at home, which supports the advantage of the hosts. A key factor is the high offensive efficiency of the hosts in home matches (xG 2.36) compared to the away xG of the visitors (1.59), indicating a qualitative advantage in created chances. Carlisle United has a solid away record (57% wins), however, the recent form of both teams (Forest Green 0.6 PPG, Carlisle 1.4 PPG in the last 5 matches) suggests fluctuations in performance. The difference in average possession (56% vs 49%) and the higher average shots on target of the hosts (7.25 vs 4.86) further speak in favor of the home team. Taking all statistics into account, Forest Green Rovers has the advantage, although Carlisle United as the third team in the table is capable of putting up a tough resistance, which justifies a moderate probability of a home win.
Forest Green Rovers vs Carlisle United: form, goals and key statistics
Game details
Forest Green Rovers played against Carlisle United in National League (England). The game was played on February 14, 2026. Final score: 1:3.
Recent form
Forest Green Rovers has 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses over its last five games, averaging 0.80 points per game. Carlisle United has 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses, with 1.40 points per game.
Scoring records
Forest Green Rovers scores 1.69 goals per game and allows 1.09. Carlisle United scores 1.77 and allows 1.19. Games in this league average 2.84 goals.
BTTS and goal totals
Both teams score in 69% of Forest Green Rovers's games and 48% of Carlisle United's. The Over 2.5 rates are 50% and 55%, compared with league averages of 56% for BTTS and 54% for Over 2.5.
xG and shots
Forest Green Rovers has the higher season xG average, 2.03 to 1.86 per game. Forest Green Rovers takes 16.7 shots per game, while Carlisle United takes 14.9.
First-half and second-half trends
Forest Green Rovers leads at halftime in 34% of its games and scores 0.91 goals per game after halftime. Carlisle United leads at halftime in 42% and scores 1.00 after halftime.
When the teams score
Forest Green Rovers's most productive scoring window is minutes 46-60 (12 goals). For Carlisle United, it is minutes 76-90+ (13 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.
League scoring profile
National League games average 2.84 goals. Both teams score in 56% of games, and 54% finish with at least three goals.
Head-to-head record
Before this game, one previous meeting was available. The record was 0 home wins, 0 draws and 1 away win. Those games averaged 6.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 100% of them.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Forest Green Rovers displays impressive home form with a 63% win rate and an average of 1.88 goals per match at home, which supports the advantage of the hosts. A key factor is the high offensive efficiency of the hosts in home matches (xG 2.36) compared to the away xG of the visitors (1.59), indicating a qualitative advantage in created chances. Carlisle United has a solid away record (57% wins), however, the recent form of both teams (Forest Green 0.6 PPG, Carlisle 1.4 PPG in the last 5 matches) suggests fluctuations in performance. The difference in average possession (56% vs 49%) and the higher average shots on target of the hosts (7.25 vs 4.86) further speak in favor of the home team. Taking all statistics into account, Forest Green Rovers has the advantage, although Carlisle United as the third team in the table is capable of putting up a tough resistance, which justifies a moderate probability of a home win.
View the statistical overviewStats by half
Game stats
Pre-game profile— what do the season numbers say?
This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.
Shooting quality
| Forest Green Rovers | Carlisle United | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 38% | 41% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.
Carlisle United is 75% better for: last-5 form.
0.8 pts / game - Forest Green Rovers · 1.4 pts / game - Carlisle United
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Carlisle United is 5% better for: goals scored per game.
1.69 goals / game - Forest Green Rovers · 1.77 goals / game - Carlisle United
Forest Green Rovers is 9% better for: goals allowed per game.
1.09 goals / game - Forest Green Rovers · 1.19 goals / game - Carlisle United
Forest Green Rovers scores in 88% of games (28 of 32 meczów), while Carlisle United keeps a clean sheet in 35% (11 of 31 meczów).
Carlisle United scores in 84% of games (26 of 31 meczów), while Forest Green Rovers keeps a clean sheet in 25% (8 of 32 meczów).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these games cross the goal lines?
See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.
Full game - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Forest Green Rovers
Over / Under - Carlisle United
1st half
2nd half
Game halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Carlisle United is 12% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.38 pts / game - Forest Green Rovers · 1.55 pts / game - Carlisle United
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Forest Green Rovers - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 34% of games and wins 50%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Defense stays consistent across the full game.
Carlisle United - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 42% of games and wins 61%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Defense stays consistent across the full game.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 0.40 | 1.80 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.6 | 1.2 |
| Goals allowed / game | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| Average goals per game | 2.0 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 80% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 0% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 20% |
| Goal difference | -4 | +3 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / game | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| Goals allowed / game | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Average goals per game | 2.0 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 20% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | 0 | -1 |
* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (12 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (9). Late-goal balance (76-90): +4 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (13 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (12). Late-goal balance (76-90): +4 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.
Game profile
Forest Green Rovers
Carlisle United
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (National League).
Teams vs league
| Forest Green Rovers | Liga | Carlisle United | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals per game | • 2.78 | 2.84 | ▲ 2.97 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 69% | 56% | ▼ 48% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 50% | 54% | • 55% |
| Clean sheets | • 25% | 25% | ▲ 35% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 84% | 71% | ▲ 77% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 78% | 80% | ▼ 77% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Record from Forest Green Rovers's perspective: 0 wins, 0 draws and 1 loss against Carlisle United. Games average 6.00 goals, and both teams scored in 100% of them.
FAQ
What was the result of Forest Green Rovers vs Carlisle United?
The National League match finished Forest Green Rovers 1:3 Carlisle United. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Forest Green Rovers vs Carlisle United?
Forest Green Rovers score 1.69 goals per game on average and Carlisle United 1.77. The National League average is 2.84 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 54% of games. Both teams score in 69% of Forest Green Rovers's matches and 48% of Carlisle United's.
What form are Forest Green Rovers and Carlisle United in?
Over the last 5 games Forest Green Rovers have a 1-1-3 record (0.80 points per game) and Carlisle United 2-1-2 (1.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Forest Green Rovers vs Carlisle United?
The statistical background for Forest Green Rovers vs Carlisle United — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.