Forlì vs Vis Pesaro: match statistics

Forlì have a clear home advantage: they have won 100% of their matches at home so far, scoring an average of 6 goals per game, while Vis Pesaro have lost every away fixture without scoring a single goal. The hosts create significantly more quality chances, as reflected by their average xG of 1.85 compared with the visitors’ 1.10, as well as 7 shots on target per game versus just 1 for Vis Pesaro. However, Forlì’s defense is far from watertight, conceding an average of 3 goals at home and failing to keep a clean sheet, which means a draw remains a realistic scenario. The visitors are also on a poor trend, having conceded 12 goals in their last 5 matches, while their away xG against stands at as high as 2.66. Although Forlì have also taken only 5 points from their last five matches, their superior finishing and Vis Pesaro’s extremely poor away numbers point towards a home win.

Forlì recorded BTTS in 80% of their last 5 matches, scoring an average of 2.0 goals and conceding 2.0, which clearly supports goals at both ends. Vis Pesaro have a lower seasonal attacking signal, as they have yet to score in their away data and failed to find the net in 100% of those matches, but their current form is stronger: averaging 1.0 goal and recording BTTS in 60% of their last 5 appearances. The hosts are particularly vulnerable to conceding, having kept no clean sheets, while their average xG conceded to opponents stands at 1.92. Vis Pesaro, meanwhile, conceded an average of 2.4 goals across their last 5 matches, with an xG against of 2.32, so Forlì's attack should create enough opportunities. Despite the visitors' poor previous scoring record, the combination of their current form and Forlì's leaky defense gives the BTTS scenario a moderate edge against the league average of 50%.

In their last five matches, Forlì averaged 2.0 goals scored, while Vis Pesaro conceded as many as 2.4 goals per game over the same period, clearly strengthening the case for at least two goals. The home side created an average of 1.41 xG, whereas the visitors’ defense allowed opponents 2.32 xG, so Forlì should account for the larger share of the projected score. Vis Pesaro also has a case for scoring: its average xG from the last five matches stands at 1.22, compared with 1.65 xG conceded by the hosts. Over 2.5 goals landed in 60% of Forlì’s recent matches and 80% of Vis Pesaro’s, but the small seasonal sample and the visitors’ lower attacking efficiency reduce confidence in higher lines. The strongest pick is therefore Over 1.5 goals, as both teams regularly play matches featuring at least two goals, while their recent defensive numbers are clearly weak.

Forlì have a clearly stronger chance-creation profile: the hosts’ average xG is 1.24, while Vis Pesaro allow opponents as much as 2.66 xG per match. The visitors have lost 100% of their away fixtures so far, failed to score in any of them, and conceded an average of 2.0 goals, strongly supporting the scenario of Forlì establishing the upper hand. In their last five matches, Vis Pesaro were trailing at half-time in 60% of cases and averaged just 0.4 goals before the break, compared with 1.0 for Forlì. The hosts average 3.5 shots on target per match, versus just 1.0 for their opponents, making a Forlì lead at the break and their maintaining it until full-time the most likely outcome. An alternative is a draw at half-time followed by a Forlì win, as the hosts were level at the break in 60% of their last five appearances; however, the superiority in chance quality primarily points to 1/1.