Fort Wayne vs NY Cosmos: match statistics

Fort Wayne have a clearly superior home profile: they score an average of 1.56 goals, concede just 0.78, and have a +7 goal difference on home soil. NY Cosmos lose as many as 75% of their away matches and allow opponents to score an average of 2.5 goals, while keeping a clean sheet in only 8% of games. The hosts also create higher-quality chances, with an average xG of 1.65 compared with 1.50 for the visitors, and record 5.22 shots on target per match versus 3.75 for Cosmos. Recent form, however, partially favors the New York side, who have collected 8 points and conceded only 6 goals in their last five matches, while Fort Wayne have lost 4 of their last 5 games. Home advantage and Cosmos’ defensive weakness away from home nevertheless make the hosts the favorites.

BTTS - Yes is moderately favored, as NY Cosmos keep a clean sheet in only 8% of matches and concede an average of 2.5 goals per game, which strongly supports Fort Wayne scoring. The hosts generate an average xG of 1.60, record 5.0 shots on target per match, and their current xG has risen to 1.74. Fort Wayne do, however, have defensive issues: they have conceded 11 goals in their last 5 matches, averaging 2.2 per game, while Cosmos have scored an average of 1.4 goals over the same period. The seasonal BTTS rate is 50% for the hosts and 67% for the visitors, close to or above the league average of 59%. The main risk to the selection is that Cosmos have recorded BTTS in only 40% of their last 5 matches, but the hosts' weak defense and the visitors' very low clean-sheet rate tilt the forecast towards Yes.

Fort Wayne has a favorable attacking profile against their opponents’ defense: they create an average of 1.60 xG, while NY Cosmos concede an average of 1.72 xG and as many as 2.50 goals per match. The visitors should also create chances, as their average xG stands at 1.50, almost identical to the 1.48 xG conceded by the hosts. At least two goals were scored in 70% of Fort Wayne’s matches and in all of NY Cosmos’ games, while the league average is a high 2.96 goals. Fort Wayne have conceded 11 goals in their last five matches, or 2.2 per game, which further reduces the likelihood of a tight match. The strongest signal is Over 1.5, as the combination of the visitors’ weak defense and the quality of chances created by both teams clearly supports a minimum of two goals.

The strongest scenario is Fort Wayne leading at the break and holding on for the win, as NY Cosmos were behind at half-time in 67% of their matches, conceding an average of as many as 1.42 goals before the break. Fort Wayne have been very effective at opening the scoring in their last five matches: they averaged 1.0 goal scored and only 0.25 conceded before half-time, and were leading in 75% of those games. Over the course of the season, the home side have won 40% of their matches, compared with just 8% for Cosmos, while the visitors concede an average of 2.5 goals per game. Fort Wayne’s advantage is also supported by their higher number of shots on target, 5.0 compared with 3.75, as well as the better quality of chances they allow opponents: Cosmos concede an average xG of 1.72. The visitors’ recent form has been better, with 1.6 points per game across their last five appearances compared with Fort Wayne’s 0.6, so turnaround scenarios or a level score after half-time remain relevant, although they are not stronger than 1/1.