Fortuna Köln vs Würzburger Kickers: match statistics

Fortuna Köln have failed to win any of their last five home matches, although three ended in draws, while Würzburger Kickers have lost four of their six away games. The hosts’ biggest advantage may lie in defense: they concede an average of 0.8 goals at home, compared with 3.17 for the visitors away, who have yet to keep a clean sheet on the road. Fortuna also create higher-quality chances, averaging 1.39 xG at home against the visitors’ 1.05 away. Finishing remains a concern for the hosts: they score just 0.2 goals per home match and have failed to score in 80% of those games, while the visitors average 1.17 goals away. Both teams have won just one of their last five matches, but Würzburg’s poor away defense gives Fortuna a slight edge over the draw.

Fortuna Köln kept a clean sheet in 60% of their home matches, while BTTS occurred in only 20% of those games, suggesting the visitors may fail to score. Würzburger Kickers average 1.17 goals away from home, but have failed to score in 33% of such matches and average just 2.67 shots on target. On the other hand, Fortuna score an average of 1.6 goals at home, while the visitors concede as many as 3.17 away, making a home goal seem less likely to be absent. The visitors’ away BTTS rate is 67%, but it has fallen to 40% across their last five matches, compared with 20% for Fortuna. Therefore, it is slightly more likely that only one team will score, most likely the hosts.

The strongest pick is Over 1.5 goals: this line landed in 80% of Fortuna’s home matches and 100% of Würzburger Kickers’ away matches. The visitors concede an average of 3.17 goals away from home, while the hosts score 1.6 goals per home match, giving Fortuna a clear chance of scoring at least twice. Higher lines are less reliable, as Fortuna have kept a clean sheet in 60% of their home matches and have averaged just 0.6 goals in their last five games. Therefore, despite at least three goals being scored in 100% of the visitors’ away matches, the Over 1.5 line is more strongly supported by data from both teams.

The strongest signal is Fortuna’s first-half advantage: the hosts led at the break in 3 of their 5 home matches, while Würzburger Kickers were trailing at half-time in 5 of their 6 away fixtures. Fortuna average 1.0 goals scored and 0.2 conceded before the break, whereas the visitors score 0.33 and concede as many as 2.17 goals per away match. Fortuna are likely to hold on to their lead, having won 60% of their home matches, while the visitors have yet to win away and concede an average of 3.17 goals per match on the road. Caution is warranted, however: Fortuna have averaged just 0.6 goals across their last 5 matches and were level at half-time in 60% of them, making a draw at the break followed by a home win a notable alternative. Nevertheless, the data most strongly supports Fortuna leading both at half-time and at full-time (HT/FT).