Forward Madison vs Richmond Kickers: match statistics

Forward Madison holds a clear advantage in both form and quality of chances: the hosts have scored 14 goals in the last 5 matches and are averaging 2.6 points per game in that period, while Richmond have scored only 3 goals and average 0.8 points per game. At home Madison averages 19 shots and 7.25 shots on target per match with an xG of 2.05, translating to 3.0 goals per game and a shot conversion rate of 16%; Richmond on the road record 9.75 shots, 3 shots on target, xG 1.18 and 0.88 goals per match with a conversion rate of 9%. Defensively the hosts concede only 0.75 goals per home match (average xG against 1.09) and are yet to lose at home (loss percentage 0%), whereas Richmond concede 2.25 goals away with xG against 1.86 and a 75% away loss rate. Additionally Richmond fail to score in 38% of away matches, while the hosts have 0% scoreless home games, indicating Madison’s superiority in finishing efficiency and consistent goal availability. Considering 19 vs 9.75 shots, xG 2.05 vs 1.18 and the hosts’ recent run (4 wins and 1 draw in five), I tip a home win.

I predict BTTS - Yes. Forward Madison have scored 14 goals in their last 5 matches (2.8 per game), while Richmond concede on the road at a rate of 2.25 goals per game (24 conceded this season), substantially increasing the likelihood of goals from both sides. From an xG perspective, the home attack averages 1.48 xG, whereas Richmond’s defense allows 1.86 xG per match, implying roughly 1.6 xG for Madison; Richmond register 1.18 xG offensively against 1.62 xG conceded versus Madison, suggesting about 1.4 xG for the visitors. Although Richmond have a low seasonal scoring average (0.88 goals per game and 0.6 in the last 5), their conversion rate of 9% and only 13% clean sheets mean the visitors rarely keep a clean sheet and will occasionally convert chances. Season BTTS rates are 33% for Madison and 50% for Richmond, while recent form shows 80% BTTS for the hosts vs 40% for the visitors, and the league BTTS level is 56% — these comparisons collectively support both teams scoring. Considering Madison’s 14 goals in five, Richmond’s 24 conceded this season and the visitors’ low clean sheet rate (13%), I assess BTTS probability at 68% versus 32% No Goal.

Based on xG: Forward Madison has an attacking xG of 1.48, while Richmond concedes an average opposing xG of 1.86 — the mean of these values suggests about 1.67 expected goals for the home side; similarly Richmond’s attacking xG is 1.18 and Forward Madison’s opposing xG is 1.62, yielding roughly 1.40 expected goals for the visitors. Incorporating form from the last 5 matches (Forward Madison scored 14 goals in 5 matches, averaging 2.8 with attacking xG over the last 5 = 1.83; Richmond conceded 9 goals in the last 5 and opposing xG over the last 5 = 1.82), the final forecasts are 1.75 goals for the home team and 1.38 for the away team, totaling 3.13 expected goals. A Poisson model with λ=3.13 yields approximately an 82% chance for Over 1.5 (probability of 0–1 goals ≈ 18%), about 60% for Over 2.5 (probability of 0–2 ≈ 40%) and around 38% for Over 3.5 (probability of ≤3 ≈ 62%). Seasonal figures support this direction: Richmond has 63% of matches with over 2.5 goals, Forward Madison in the last 5 has 60% of fixtures with over 2.5 and scores on average 2.8 goals, while Richmond concedes on average 2.25 goals per game — therefore I recommend Over 1.5 as the strongest signal.

Forward Madison are in clear form: in their last 5 matches they won 4 of 5 (80%), averaging 2.8 goals per game and 1.4 goals by half-time, and they led at the break in 5 of 5 (100%); Richmond in those five matches won only 1 (20%) and register 0.2 goals by half-time. Over the season the hosts have higher xG (1.48 vs 1.18), take more shots (13.17 vs 9.75) and more shots on target (4.17 vs 3.0), and the hosts’ average points scored by half-time is 1.33 versus 0.88 for the visitors, indicating host control of the game before the break. Richmond concede on average 2.25 goals per away game and have only a 13% away win rate, so the hosts maintaining their lead through to full-time appears realistic. It should be noted, however, that the visitors have 88% of matches with at least one goal after the break, so they may attempt a turnaround in the second half, but their season average of points (0.5) weakens that possibility. In light of these numbers I assign the highest probability to the 1/1 HT/FT scenario (60%), lower probabilities to 1/X (12%) and X/X (10%), and scenarios with the visitors leading at half-time I assess at a combined 7% (2/1=1%, 2/X=3%, 2/2=3%).