Fratria vs Beroe: match statistics

Fratria sit 3rd, while Beroe are 11th, and the current form clearly favors the home side: they have won 4 of their last 5 matches, averaging 2.4 points per game compared with Beroe’s 0.8. The hosts have scored 9 goals in their last five matches, conceding just 1, whereas the visitors have scored 3 and allowed 7 goals during the same period. At home, Fratria average 16 shots and 5.5 shots on target per match, with an xG of 1.87, while Beroe manage only 7 shots away from home and have failed to score in 100% of such matches. Fratria’s defense also looks solid, conceding an average of 0.5 goals at home and keeping a clean sheet in half of their matches, while Beroe’s average number of goals scored away from home is zero. Although Fratria have also struggled with finishing in some of their home fixtures, their advantage in the quality of chances created, current momentum, and defensive solidity points to a home win.

The strongest argument against BTTS - Yes is Beroe’s very poor attacking efficiency: over their last 5 matches, the team has averaged just 0.6 goals and scored 3 in total. Fratria, meanwhile, have shown a solid defensive setup, conceding only 0.2 goals per match during this period—just one goal in five games—and none of those matches saw both teams score. The hosts are clearly more dangerous in attack, averaging 1.8 goals, 1.97 xG and 13 shots per match across their last five appearances, while Beroe average 7 shots. Although Beroe’s away xG stands at 1.35, their current chance conversion and a BTTS rate of 40% over their last five matches do not offset Fratria’s defensive advantage. Therefore, BTTS - No is the more likely outcome, meaning that at least one team is expected not to score—not necessarily a 0:0 draw or a match in which neither side scores.

Fratria are in excellent form: they have scored 9 goals and conceded just 1 in their last 5 matches, while Beroe have scored 3 and conceded 7 during the same period. The hosts average 1.97 xG across their last five fixtures, while their solid defense allows opponents just 1.07 xG. Beroe do average 1.35 xG in their last five outings, but they are scoring only 0.6 goals per match in reality and have failed to score in 100% of the available seasonal data. Matches with Over 2.5 goals accounted for 40% of the last five fixtures for both teams, while none of the available seasonal matches involving either side exceeded 3.5 goals. The strongest signal is therefore Under 3.5, as the projected total of 2.35 goals leaves a clear margin below four goals.

Fratria have won 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring an average of 1.8 goals and conceding just 0.2, while Beroe have lost 3 of their 5 matches over the same period and allowed opponents to score 1.4 goals on average. The hosts held a lead at the break in 80% of their recent appearances, scoring an average of 1.6 goals before half-time while conceding just 0.2, whereas Beroe scored only 0.4 goals during this phase. In addition, Fratria kept a clean sheet at half-time in 80% of their last five matches, while the visitors failed to score before the break in 60% of those games. After half-time, Fratria also continued to concede no goals on average across their last five matches, making the most likely HT/FT outcome 1/1, with the hosts leading at the break and maintaining their winning advantage until full-time.