Fratria vs CSKA Sofia II: match statistics

Fratria has a clear home advantage: at home they win 77% of matches, score an average of 2.31 goals per game and register 7.62 shots on target, while CSKA Sofia II average 1.38 goals away and have 5.85 shots on target. The hosts concede only 0.85 goals per home game and keep a clean sheet in 46% of matches, whereas the visitors concede 1.62 goals on average away and keep a clean sheet in just 23% of games. The quality gap in chance creation is confirmed by xG values: Fratria’s home xG is 1.82 versus 1.39 xG for the away side, and xG against is 1.11 versus 1.41, suggesting superior chance creation and a more compact defense from the hosts. In the last 5 matches Fratria are unbeaten (2 wins, 3 draws), while CSKA have a 3 wins and 2 losses record with the same 1.8 points per game over the last 5, so stability and efficiency tilt in Fratria’s favor. Based on this, I tip a home win.

I project BTTS - Yes at ~62% probability (38% for No BTTS). CSKA Sofia II registers a seasonal away BTTS rate of 62% and concedes 1.62 goals per away match on average; in the last 5 fixtures they average 2.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, indicating the ability to score even on the road. Fratria averages 2.13 goals scored this season with xG_for 1.82, a seasonal average conceded of 0.47 and 53% clean sheets at home, but in the last 5 matches they had BTTS in 80% and conceded 0.8 goals on average, signaling increased vulnerability. The xG comparison (Fratria xG_for 1.82 vs CSKA xG_against 1.41; CSKA xG_for 1.39 vs Fratria xG_against 1.03) along with shots and shots on target (12.8 vs 10.85 and 7.87 vs 5.85) and conversion rates (17% vs 13%) support the Both Teams To Score scenario.

Fratria scores an average of 2.13 goals per home game while CSKA Sofia II concedes an average of 1.62 goals away; their xG is 1.82 (Fratria) versus 1.39 (CSKA II). Combined expected values based on xG and defensive stats yield about 1.62 goals for the home side ((1.82+1.41)/2) and 1.21 for the visitors ((1.39+1.03)/2), summing to 2.83 expected goals. At this total the probabilistic model indicates roughly a 77% chance of Over 1.5 goals, ~54% for Over 2.5 and ~31% for Over 3.5, hence the strongest signal is Over 1.5. Seasonal figures support this: Over 1.5 occurred 67% of the time for Fratria and 85% for CSKA II, whereas Over 2.5 is 33%/62%, which is a weaker case. Additionally Fratria averages 7.87 shots on target with a 17% conversion versus 5.85 and 13% for CSKA II, increasing the likelihood of at least two goals in the match.

Fratria is the clear favorite: the hosts win 67% of matches, score an average of 2.13 goals per game and have an xG of 1.82 versus CSKA Sofia II’s 1.39 xG, with average goals conceded of 0.47 for the hosts compared to 1.62 for the visitors, illustrating Fratria’s offensive and defensive superiority. At half-time Fratria led in 47% of matches and scores an average of 0.87 goals in the first half while conceding only 0.33, so a lead at the break is a realistic outcome. CSKA Sofia II posts weaker chance-creation metrics (an average of 5.85 shots on target and a conversion rate of 13%) and concedes more goals per game, reducing their prospects of a turnaround after the break. In the last five matches Fratria led at half-time in 60% of cases, and in second halves at home they earn an average of 2.0 points versus 0.85 points earned by visitors, which reinforces the scenario of maintaining the lead and winning. On this basis I assign the highest probability to the 1/1 Half-Time/Full-Time scenario (38%), with X/1 (22%) as a realistic alternative; a turnaround in favor of the visitors is assessed as unlikely (1/2 2% and 2/2 6%).