Fredrikstad vs Kristiansund: match statistics

Fredrikstad win 57% of their home matches and average 1.43 goals at home, while Kristiansund score just 0.63 goals per away game. The visitors have lost as many as 75% of their away fixtures, have kept no clean sheets on the road and concede an average of 1.88 goals. The hosts’ advantage is also evident in the quality of chances created: their average home xG is 1.55, compared with Kristiansund’s 1.27 away from home, while opponents are allowed an xG of 1.83. Fredrikstad do have an inconsistent recent run, with 2 wins and 3 defeats in their last five matches, but Kristiansund have managed just 1 victory in that period and scored only 4 goals. The recent results point more towards a controlled home win, although Fredrikstad’s average of 1.14 goals conceded at home gives the visitors a realistic chance of securing a draw.

The stronger signal points to BTTS - No, primarily due to both teams’ very poor current scoring form: Fredrikstad have scored only 0.4 goals per match in their last 5 fixtures, while Kristiansund have averaged 0.8. The hosts have not recorded a single Goal/Goal result in this run, whereas their opponents saw that outcome in 60% of their last five appearances. Kristiansund score just 0.63 goals per match this season and fail to find the net in as many as 50% of their games, which clearly increases the likelihood that one side will be held scoreless. Both defenses allow opponents a high xG—1.79 for Fredrikstad and 2.02 for Kristiansund over their last five matches—so one team scoring is likely, but this does not offset the attacking problems of both sides. Fredrikstad’s seasonal BTTS rate of 63% supports the BTTS - Yes option, but their current scoring form more strongly points to a scenario in which at least one team fails to score.

The strongest signal is Under 3.5 goals, as this line has not been exceeded in as many as 87% of matches involving either team. Fredrikstad score an average of 1.25 goals, while Kristiansund score just 0.63, with the hosts having managed only 0.4 goals per game across their last five fixtures. However, both teams create chances worth an average of 1.27 xG over the course of the season, while their opponents allow 1.83 and 1.77 xG respectively. Therefore, a 1–2-goal scenario remains more likely than a very low-scoring game. Kristiansund concede an average of 1.88 goals, but neither team has scored at least three goals in a single match with a frequency higher than 13% this season. The projected total of 2.40 goals provides some safety margin against the 3.5 line, whereas Over 2.5 is noticeably less stable.

Fredrikstad have a clearly stronger overall match profile: they average 1.25 goals, compared with just 0.63 for Kristiansund, while the visitors have lost as many as 75% of their matches. The hosts are also more clinical despite creating a similar number of chances, converting 11% of their shots into goals compared with just 5% for their opponents. Although a draw at half-time is a realistic possibility, as Fredrikstad were level after 45 minutes in 63% of their matches, Kristiansund went into the break trailing in as many as 63% of cases. After the interval, the hosts score an average of 0.88 goals, while the visitors concede 1.00, further supporting the scenario of Fredrikstad maintaining or extending their lead. The 1/1 pick is therefore the strongest, as it combines Kristiansund’s weak attacking output with the hosts’ superior finishing and stronger full-time results.