Fulham vs Aston Villa: match statistics

Fulham have a 56% win rate at home, average 1.69 goals scored per game and xG 1.52, with only 13% of matches without a goal, underlining their home offensive strength. Aston Villa sit higher in the table (4th vs 12th), have 17 wins this season vs Fulham’s 13 and scored 13 goals in the last 5 matches with only 3 wins in that period, translating to an average of 2 points per game compared to Fulham’s 1 point. As an away side Villa register 4.06 shots on target and xG 1.34 per game, but fail to score in 31% of away matches, whereas Fulham average 3.88 shots on target at home and only 13% goalless games, which diminishes the potential effectiveness of Villa’s advantage. Defensively Fulham are slightly better at home — conceding 1.19 goals per game with 25% clean sheets, versus Villa’s 1.44 conceded away and 19% clean sheets, suggesting Villa may struggle to finish in an away fixture. Considering Villa’s superior offensive form (13 goals in 5 games) against Fulham’s strong home metrics (xG 1.52, 56% home wins), I forecast a narrow victory for the visitors.

Aston Villa strongly supports the BTTS scenario: seasonally they have 63% of matches with both teams scoring, and in the last 5 matches this is 80% with an average 2.6 goals scored and 1.4 conceded. Fulham has a seasonal BTTS of 47% and only 20% in the last 5, however their last 5 matches show xG of 1.64 with an average 0.6 scored, which suggests Fulham creates chances (1.64 xG) but converts poorly (0.6 goals). Villa keep a clean sheet in only 19% of matches versus 35% for Fulham, and the league averages 55% of matches with BTTS, which further favors both teams scoring. Chance-creation stats also support BTTS: Fulham averages 14.24 shots and 4.82 shots on target per match, Villa 11.38 and 4.06, with a similar conversion rate of 11% for both teams. Considering the signal advantage on Villa’s side (63% seasonally and 80% in the last 5) and Fulham’s created xG, I rate 70% for 'yes' (BTTS - Yes) and 30% for 'no' (No Goal).

Expected goals are estimated at 1.60 for Fulham and 1.33 for Aston Villa (total 2.93) by averaging the home attack xG (1.63) and away xG conceded (1.57) and vice versa (1.34 and 1.32). A Poisson model for a mean of 2.93 indicates ~79% probability of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5) and ~56% probability of at least 3 goals (Over 2.5). Seasonally Fulham scores 1.59 goals and has 65% of matches Over 1.5, while Aston Villa scores 1.25 and has 81% of matches Over 1.5; in the last 5 matches Villa scored 13 goals (2.6 per game) versus Fulham’s 3 goals (0.6). Both teams show a high share of matches with at least one goal (Over 0.5: Fulham 94%, Villa 88%) and BTTS 47% vs 63%, which further supports higher-goal options; therefore the strongest data signal is Over 1.5.

The most likely scenario is that Fulham will lead at the break and win the match (1/1). Seasonally Fulham led at half-time in 7 matches (41%) and scores on average 0.71 goals by half-time versus Aston Villa’s 0.44, while their xG is 1.63 versus the visitors’ 1.34, indicating an advantage in the quality of chances. Additionally, the home side has a 65% home-win rate and averages 2.06 points per home match versus the visitors’ 1.44 points per match, and an average of 14.24 shots (4.82 on target) versus 11.38 (4.06 on target), suggesting greater control and more opportunities, which favors maintaining a lead. However, form must be considered: Aston Villa led at half-time in 60% of their last 5 matches (3 of 5) and scored an average of 1.6 first-half goals, so scenarios involving a draw or Villa leading at half-time (X/1, X/X) receive significant weight. Taking into account Fulham’s seasonal advantage in xG and home results, I assign the highest probability to 1/1, while retaining meaningful probability for X/1 and X/X given Aston Villa’s strong first-half performance.