Gateshead vs Solihull Moors: match statistics

Gateshead come into this fixture with a poor overall record, having recorded 1 win and 4 defeats in five league matches, but Solihull Moors have lost all 5 of their games and conceded as many as 16 goals. At home, the hosts have won 50% of their matches while conceding just 0.5 goals per game on average, whereas the visitors have lost 100% of their away fixtures and allowed their opponents an average of 4 goals. Gateshead create chances worth an average of 1.47 xG at home, while Solihull’s defense allows 2.42 xG, which should give the hosts a clear advantage in terms of opportunities created. The visitors score 1.5 goals per away game and have failed to score on none of their outings, so their goal cannot be ruled out; however, their dreadful run of five consecutive defeats and lack of clean sheets strongly point towards a Gateshead victory.

The BTTS signal is clear, as Solihull Moors matches have featured goals from both sides in 100% of cases this season, compared with 67% for Gateshead. Neither team has kept a single clean sheet: the hosts concede an average of 2.67 goals, while the visitors concede as many as 4.00 per match. Gateshead have poor finishing efficiency, scoring just 0.67 goals on average from an xG of 1.53, but Solihull’s defense allows opponents an xG of 2.42, significantly increasing the hosts’ chances of finding the net. Solihull score an average of 1.50 goals, while Gateshead allow opponents 1.65 xG, so the visitors should also create enough goalscoring opportunities. Caution is warranted due to Gateshead’s last five matches, in which BTTS occurred in only 40% of games, but the extremely weak defenses of both teams still provide stronger support for the BTTS - Yes option.

The defensive profiles of both teams clearly favor goals: Gateshead concede an average of 2.67 goals, while Solihull Moors concede as many as 4.00 goals per game. Neither team has kept a clean sheet yet, and at least 2 goals have been scored in 100% of their matches. Solihull Moors’ last five games produced an average of 4.2 total goals, with the team scoring 1.0 and conceding 3.2 goals per match. The hosts create chances worth an average of 1.53 xG, while the visitors allow opponents 2.42 xG, which should offset Gateshead’s low finishing efficiency. Over 1.5 goals is the strongest pick, combining the very high consistency of this line with a projected total of 3.13 goals.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Gateshead win at full-time, as the hosts have been level at the break in 3 of their last 5 matches, while Solihull Moors were trailing at that stage in as many as 4 of 5. Gateshead failed to score before half-time in those five matches, but conceded only 0.4 goals on average, which supports a cautious opening. After the break, the hosts score an average of 0.8 goals, while the visitors concede as many as 1.8 goals per match in this period. The home side’s advantage is further reinforced by an xG of 1.53, compared with the 2.42 xG that Solihull Moors concede on average. The visitors have lost all of their last 5 matches and conceded an average of 3.2 goals in them, making them less reliable when it comes to preserving a draw late in the game.