Gaziantep FK vs Rizespor: match statistics

Rizespor hold a small but clear edge in the away data: they won their only match on the road so far, kept a clean sheet and averaged 1.73 xG while allowing opponents just 0.83 xG. Gaziantep dominate possession at home (61% compared with 56%) and average 13 shots per game, but this translates into only 1 goal per match at an 8% conversion rate. Both teams have scored 4 goals in their last five fixtures, but the hosts’ defense has conceded 7 goals during that period, while Rizespor have posted a better chance-quality profile away from home. Gaziantep are still unbeaten at home, although they have recorded a draw there, and the visitors show more convincing numbers both in chance creation and in limiting the threat around their own goal. Therefore, a narrow Rizespor win is the most likely outcome, although the low scoring output of both teams also increases the likelihood of a draw.

The strongest signal points to BTTS - No: Gaziantep have not yet scored in the competition, while Rizespor have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their matches so far. Both teams also currently have a seasonal BTTS rate of 0%, compared with the league average of 39%. However, their five-match form provides some support for a goal at both ends, as Gaziantep conceded an average of 1.4 goals and Rizespor as many as 2.0, with BTTS rates of 60% and 40% respectively. The hosts recorded a high average xG of 2.92 and managed 8 shots on target, yet still failed to score, which reduces confidence in their finishing against the Rizespor defense. A scenario in which only one team scores is therefore more likely than both sides finding the net.

Data from the last 5 matches indicates moderate goal-scoring potential: both teams averaged 0.8 goals scored, although Gaziantep conceded 1.4 and Rizespor as many as 2.0 goals per match. The quality of chances created is higher on the visitors’ side, with their average xG standing at 2.13 compared with the hosts’ 1.31, while the defenses allowed xG figures of 1.24 and 1.31, respectively. In their last five matches, the Over 2.5 goals line landed in 40% of Gaziantep’s games and 60% of Rizespor’s, which does not provide a strong argument for a highly open match. Additionally, the league-wide average is 2.5 goals, and only 39% of its matches finish with Over 2.5 goals. The projected total of 2.45 goals leaves only a narrow margin for a result with at least four goals, making Under 3.5 goals the safest selection.

The strongest scenario is Rizespor leading at the break, followed by a turnaround by Gaziantep after half-time. In their last five matches, Gaziantep have failed to score before the break, conceded an average of 1.2 goals in that period, and were trailing at half-time in 80% of those games. Over the same period, Rizespor scored an average of 0.4 goals before half-time, while the hosts have also recorded a home match in which they conceded once before the break. After half-time, the picture is more favourable for Gaziantep: they score an average of 0.8 goals, concede just 0.2, and won the second half in 60% of their last matches, whereas Rizespor lost it in 80% of cases and conceded an average of 1.2 goals. In addition, the hosts create significantly more chances, recording an xG of 2.92 and 8 shots on target per match compared with the visitors’ xG of 1.73 and 5 shots on target, further strengthening the likelihood of a final turnaround.