GD Chaves vs AVS: match statistics

GD Chaves have a very poor record over their last five matches: just 1 win and 4 defeats, with 7 goals scored and as many as 11 conceded. Over the same period, AVS collected 8 points through 2 wins and 2 draws, while the visitors’ defense conceded only 4 goals—significantly fewer than their opponents. At home, however, the hosts create plenty of chances: they average 19 shots, register an xG of 1.98 and enjoy 63% possession, although this translates into just 1 goal per match. AVS also average 1 goal away from home and drew their only match so far, despite recording a high average xG against of 2.08. AVS’ superior recent form and defensive organization offset Chaves’ advantage in chance creation, making a draw the most likely outcome.

The signal for both sides to score is driven primarily by recent form: GD Chaves recorded BTTS in 80% of their previous five matches, while AVS did so in 60%. During this period, the hosts scored an average of 1.4 goals but conceded as many as 2.2, whereas AVS netted 1.2 goals per match. AVS’s defense allowed opponents an average of 2.09 xG across their last five fixtures, while Chaves’s attack generated 1.55 xG, giving the hosts a solid basis to score. AVS should, in turn, benefit from Chaves’s weaker defense, which allowed opponents 2.18 xG per match during the season. This is not a particularly strong pick, as the league BTTS average is only 39% and Chaves have not yet scored in the early part of the season; however, the current five-match data more clearly supports the BTTS - Yes option.

Chaves’ last five matches produced an average of 3.6 goals, as the team scored 1.4 but conceded as many as 2.2. Over the same period, AVS have shown a more stable defense, conceding just 0.8 goals per match, although their average xG against is a high 2.09. The hosts have recently created chances worth 1.55 xG, while AVS have recorded 1.02 xG, indicating a realistic chance of 2–3 goals, but not an open, high-scoring game with four goals. In addition, the league-wide average is only 2.0 goals, and just 33% of matches have gone Over 2.5 goals. Therefore, Under 3.5 has the edge: even with an improvement in attacking output compared with the season data, the most likely outcome remains a result with a maximum of three goals.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by an AVS win at full-time, as AVS drew the first half in 80% of their last five matches, compared with 60% for GD Chaves. The visitors conceded just 0.2 goals per game before the break, while their average goals scored in this period stood at 0.4, supporting a cautious opening. After half-time, AVS score an average of 0.8 goals and concede 0.6, whereas Chaves score only 0.4 and allow opponents 1.2 goals. The form advantage also lies with the visitors: AVS averaged 1.6 points over their last five matches, with a 40% win rate, while Chaves managed only 0.6 points and suffered four defeats. In addition, the hosts have a lower attacking xG of 0.63 compared with AVS’s 1.02, alongside a very weak defensive figure of 2.18 xG conceded.