Genoa vs Frosinone: match statistics

Frosinone sit 7th, while Genoa are 19th, and after three matches the two teams’ records stand at 2 wins and 1 defeat for the visitors compared with 3 defeats for the hosts. Genoa average just 0.5 goals at home and have lost both matches, conceding as many as 3 goals per game while keeping no clean sheets. Frosinone won their only away match so far 3:0, averaging 6 shots on target compared with Genoa’s 2, and recording a 25% finishing rate versus 5% for the hosts. Current form also favors the visitors: they have collected 10 points and scored 11 goals in their last five matches, whereas Genoa have earned 3 points and suffered 4 defeats. Although Frosinone’s away xG against is a high 2.30, Genoa’s very poor attacking output, with a home xG of 1.07, limits the hosts’ chances of exploiting this weakness.

The case for goals from both sides is strengthened by their current form: Genoa have conceded 1.8 goals per game over their last 5 matches, while Frosinone have averaged 2.2 goals scored. The hosts have kept a clean sheet in none of their home matches, while their average xG of 1.37 and 5 shots on target per game provide a solid basis for a scoring response. Frosinone possess very high-quality chance creation, with an average xG of 1.54 for the season and 1.69 across their last five appearances, while Genoa allow opponents an xG of 1.72. The case for “No” is supported by Frosinone’s 100% clean-sheet record in their away matches so far, but this is a very small sample, and the team have conceded an average of 1.0 goal over their last 5 matches. BTTS - Yes is therefore slightly more likely than BTTS - No, particularly given that 60% of Frosinone’s last five matches have produced such results.

Frosinone have averaged 2.2 goals scored in their last five matches, while Genoa have conceded 1.8 goals per game over the same period, clearly supporting the visitors’ scoring potential. The hosts have managed just 1.0 goal per match during this run, but Frosinone’s defense has allowed opponents an average xG of 1.68, so Genoa should create chances. The combined projected xG for both teams is 2.92, above the league average of 2.73 goals. Over 1.5 goals has landed in 100% of Frosinone’s away matches to date and in 50% of Genoa’s games, while the visitors’ high attacking tempo makes Over 1.5 the safest choice.

Frosinone are in significantly better current form: they have averaged 2.2 goals over their last five matches, won 60% of them and lost only once, while Genoa have averaged 1.0 goal and suffered defeats in 80% of their games. The first-half signal is particularly strong: the visitors led at the break in 60% of their last five appearances, scoring an average of 1.6 goals and conceding just 0.4, whereas the hosts led at half-time in only 20% of matches, scoring 0.6 and conceding 1.0 goal on average. Season-long data also show Frosinone leading after 45 minutes in 100% of matches and conceding no goals in that period, while Genoa were behind at half-time in half of their games. After the interval, the hosts averaged only 0.4 goals in their last five matches, while their opponents kept a clean sheet in the second half on 60% of occasions. The most likely outcome is therefore an HT/FT scenario in which Frosinone take the lead before half-time and maintain it until the final whistle: 1/1.