Gillingham vs Walsall: match statistics

Walsall have the stronger recent points record, averaging 1.2 points per match over their last five games compared with Gillingham’s 0.6. The visitors won 2 of those 5 matches, while the hosts managed just 1, with both teams scoring 5 goals during that period. However, Walsall’s slightly more stable defense is the key factor: they conceded 11 goals, an average of 2.2 per game, compared with Gillingham’s 15, or 3.0 per match. Gillingham have suffered 4 defeats in their last 5 appearances and are on a three-game losing streak, increasing the visitors’ chances of capitalising on their opponents’ problems. The lack of detailed home-and-away data limits the extent of the advantage, but the current record in terms of results and defensive performance points towards Walsall.

The signal for both teams to score is moderately positive, as Gillingham and Walsall have each scored 5 goals in their last 5 matches, averaging 1.0 goal per game. At the same time, both defenses are clearly leaking goals: the hosts have conceded an average of 3.0 goals, while the visitors have conceded 2.2 per match. Walsall’s attacking potential is supported by an xG of 1.66, while Gillingham should benefit from the fact that their opponents have allowed chances worth 2.06 xG. BTTS - Yes occurred in 60% of Gillingham’s last five matches and in 40% of Walsall’s games, giving an average of 50%. Combined with the defensive struggles of both teams, this makes a goal for each side the more likely outcome. BTTS - No would mean that at least one team fails to score; it does not automatically imply a 0:0 draw or that neither team will score.

Gillingham’s last five matches produced an average of 4.0 goals, with the team scoring 5 and conceding as many as 15. Walsall’s games were also open: over the same period, they averaged 3.2 goals, with 5 scored and 11 conceded. The 2.5 line was surpassed in 80% of the home side’s last five matches and in 60% of the away side’s games, clearly supporting a scenario with at least two goals. Walsall generated an average of 1.66 xG, while Gillingham’s defense allowed opponents 1.82 xG, giving the visitors solid grounds to score. Over 1.5 remains the strongest pick, as the poor defensive records of both teams significantly reduce the risk of a 0:0 or 1:0 result.

Walsall have the better record over their last five matches, winning two games and averaging 1.2 points, while Gillingham have won just once and averaged 0.6 points. The hosts conceded as many as 3.0 goals per match during this period, clearly more than Walsall’s 2.2, while both teams scored only 1.0 goal per game. Before half-time, Gillingham averaged 0.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, whereas the visitors also scored 0.4 but allowed their opponents just 1.0 goal. Both teams were trailing at the break in 3 of their last 5 matches, but Gillingham’s weaker defense increases the likelihood that Walsall will take an early lead this time. After the interval, the hosts continued to concede an average of 1.6 goals, compared with 1.2 for Walsall, making the most consistent scenario a Walsall lead at half-time followed by an away win: X/2.