Gimnasia Jujuy vs Agropecuario: match statistics

Gimnasia Jujuy are extremely strong at home: they win 77% of their matches, score an average of 1.92 goals and concede just 0.69 per game. Away from home, Agropecuario win only 8% of their matches, lose in 62% of cases and score just 0.62 goals per game. The hosts create significantly more high-quality chances, as reflected by an xG of 1.91 compared with 1.11 for the visitors, while also averaging 5.77 shots on target per match to their opponents’ 2.69. Recent overall form does favor Agropecuario, who have won 3 of their last 5 matches, but Gimnasia’s home record stands at 10 wins, 2 draws and just 1 defeat. The visitors’ poor away finishing will be crucial, as they have failed to score in 54% of their away matches, making a home win the most likely outcome.

The strongest signal points to BTTS - No, as Gimnasia Jujuy keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches, while Agropecuario score just 0.62 goals on average away from home. The hosts allow opponents only 1.00 xG per match, while the visitors average 2.69 shots on target and convert just 7% of their attempts. Gimnasia’s seasonal BTTS rate is only 31%, clearly below Agropecuario’s 46% and the league average of 40%. The last five matches for both teams produced BTTS in 40% of games, but the visitors’ improved attacking output of 1.4 goals per match is offset by their difficult matchup against the hosts’ strong defense. Gimnasia also average 1.49 xG and 4.77 shots on target, making the more likely scenario one in which the hosts score but Agropecuario fail to reply.

The season profiles of both teams clearly support a low-scoring outcome: matches involving each side finished with fewer than 2.5 goals in 69% of cases. The signal is even stronger for the 3.5-goal line, which Gimnasia Jujuy has failed to exceed even once, while Agropecuario stayed below it in 85% of matches. The hosts concede just 0.69 goals per game at home and keep a clean sheet in 54% of their appearances, while the visitors score only 0.62 goals away from home. Gimnasia’s attacking potential is greater, with average xG of 1.49 compared with the 1.53 xG conceded by Agropecuario, but the visitors generate just 1.11 xG, while the hosts’ defense allows 1.00 xG. The last five matches were slightly more open, but the projected total of 2.18 goals still gives a clear edge to the Under 3.5 goals bet.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Gimnasia Jujuy victory at full-time, as both teams often start cautiously: the hosts were level at the break in 46% of their matches, while Agropecuario recorded a half-time draw in 54%. Their matches produced an average of only 0.77 goals in the first half for Gimnasia and 0.69 for Agropecuario, with the teams scoring just 0.31 and 0.08 goals respectively before the break. After half-time, the hosts’ advantage becomes clear: they score an average of 0.77 goals and concede only 0.23, while the visitors concede as many as 1.00 goal per match in this period. Across the season, Gimnasia score 1.08 goals and concede 0.69 at home, whereas Agropecuario score 0.62 and allow opponents 1.62 goals away from home. The hosts’ weaker recent form, with 1 win in their last 5 matches compared with Agropecuario’s 3 victories, reduces confidence in predicting a Gimnasia lead at the break, but the second-half profile still supports the X/1 HT/FT outcome.