Gimpo Citizen vs Cheonan City: match statistics

Gimpo Citizen are unbeaten in their last five league matches, recording 2 wins and 3 draws, while conceding just 3 goals during that run. Cheonan City, meanwhile, have lost 4 of their last 5 fixtures and allowed their opponents to score as many as 11 goals, clearly raising concerns about the stability of their defense. At home, the hosts create chances worth an average xG of 2.00, with 16.5 shots and 6 shots on target per match, while away from home, the visitors allow opponents an xG of 1.85 and concede an average of 2.00 goals. Cheonan are capable of scoring 1.70 goals per away match, but they have kept no clean sheets on the road, so Gimpo should hold the edge in terms of chance quality. Gimpo’s high 67% home draw rate increases the risk of a stalemate, but the visitors’ poor run and 60% away-loss rate point towards a home win.

The BTTS - Yes pick is primarily supported by Cheonan City’s very weak defense, which concedes an average of 2.0 goals per game this season and has kept no clean sheets. Gimpo Citizen have improved offensively in their last 5 matches, scoring an average of 1.4 goals with an xG of 1.95, while Cheonan conceded as many as 11 goals during this period, or 2.2 per game. The visitors themselves score an average of 1.7 goals per game this season, generate 1.64 xG and register 4.5 shots on target per match, giving them a solid basis to find the net. Although Gimpo have kept clean sheets in 40% of their matches this season and have conceded only 0.6 goals per game recently, both teams recorded BTTS in 60% of their last 5 matches. Cheonan’s season-long 80% BTTS rate and their lack of clean sheets outweigh Gimpo’s lower 40% rate, making it more likely that both sides will score.

Cheonan concede an average of 2.0 goals per match, rising to 2.2 across their last five fixtures, which clearly favors Gimpo’s scoring prospects. During this period, the hosts created chances worth 1.95 xG per match, while the visitors’ defense allowed opponents 1.45 xG. However, Cheonan remain dangerous in attack: they average 1.7 goals per season, record 4.5 shots on target per match, and scored in 80% of their games. The Over 1.5 goals line is also supported by the trends, having landed in 80% of Cheonan’s matches, while the two teams generate a combined projected total of 2.78 goals. The higher Over 2.5 line is less reliable, as Gimpo recorded more than 2.5 total goals in only 30% of their matches this season.

Gimpo Citizen have been clearly more stable over their last five matches: they have not lost any of them, scoring an average of 1.4 goals and conceding just 0.6, whereas Cheonan City have suffered defeats in 80% of their games and allowed opponents to score 2.2 goals per match. The home side have stronger foundations for taking the lead at the break, as Cheonan were behind at half-time in 60% of their recent matches, while their average number of goals conceded before the break stands at 1.2, compared with 0.5 for Gimpo. Across the season, the visitors concede an average of 2.0 goals, have kept no clean sheets, while Gimpo have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their home matches. Gimpo’s advantage is also supported by their second-half performances: in their last five outings, the hosts conceded just 0.25 goals per game after the break and averaged 2.0 goals scored in that period. The most likely scenario, therefore, remains one in which Gimpo lead at half-time and maintain their winning result until the final whistle.