Godoy Cruz vs All Boys: match statistics

I back the home win (1). Godoy Cruz holds a clear advantage in home metrics: on average 1.14 goals per match and xG 1.76 with 4.57 shots on target, whereas All Boys register 0.50 goals per away match, xG 1.33 and 3.0 shots on target. Defensively the hosts are more solid — they concede 0.71 goals per home match, while All Boys concede 1.50 goals on the road; home goal differential is +3 versus -6 for the visitors. In the last 5 matches both teams have scored 4 goals each, but Godoy has 1.2 points per match vs 1.0 for All Boys; it is also notable that the hosts failed to score in 43% of home fixtures, while the visitors were shut out in 67% of away games. Considering the higher home conversion rate 9% versus the visitors’ 5%, greater possession (61% vs 50%) and All Boys’ lack of away wins (0% wins and 83% losses), I assess the probability of a home win at 65%, a draw at 20% and an away win at 15%.

I tip 'no' as the strongest signal: 70% vs 30% for BTTS. Godoy Cruz has 71% home clean sheets and concedes only 0.29 goals per home match on average, while All Boys score an average of 0.5 goals, which significantly reduces the chance of Goal/Goal. Seasonal BTTS rates are 29% for hosts and 33% for guests (avg ~31%), below the league level of 39%, and the league records as many as 79% clean sheets — this historically favors a No Goal scenario. Although xG shows some chance creation (1.53 xG for hosts vs 1.33 xG for guests) and both teams have 40% BTTS in their last 5 matches, hosts attempt more shots (12.57 vs 10.0) and defend effectively, so short-term signals do not outweigh the season-long defensive trend. Therefore, based on a 71% home clean sheet rate and the low away scoring average of 0.5, I assign 70% probability to 'no' and 30% to 'yes'.

I project 1.15 goals for Godoy Cruz and 0.83 goals for All Boys, totaling 1.98 goals. Calculations use both xG (home xG 1.53, away xG 1.33; xG against: home 1.01, away 1.56) and finishing efficiency: Godoy Cruz averages 12.57 shots with a 6% conversion (~0.75 goals), All Boys 10 shots with 5% conversion (~0.50 goals), and averaging both methods yielded the above values. Additionally, the home side records 71% clean sheets, the league averages 1.89 goals/match, and seasonal Over2.5 occurs in only 14% of home matches and 33% of away matches, which lowers the probability of 3+ goals. A Poisson model with an expectation of 1.98 goals gives over 1.5 ≈59%, over 2.5 ≈32% and over 3.5 ≈14%, therefore the strongest signal from the data is an under at the 2.5 line.

Godoy Cruz is the clear favorite: the home side’s seasonal average points are 1.86 versus 0.17 for All Boys, and the visitors’ loss rate is 83% compared to 43% home wins, indicating a large disparity in strength. In the first half, over the last five matches the hosts led at the break in 40% (2 of 5) of games and scored 6 first-half goals, while All Boys had 0% leads at the break and only 2 first-half goals in those matches. Quality-of-chances metrics favor the hosts: home xG is 1.53 versus 1.33 for All Boys, while All Boys’ xG against is 1.56 compared to 1.01 for Godoy Cruz; the visitors concede on average 1.5 goals per season, and the hosts keep clean sheets in 71% of matches. The second half also favors the home team — in second-half stats the hosts have accumulated 13 points and average 1.86 points per match, while the visitors have 4 points and 0.67 points — therefore the most likely scenario is Godoy Cruz leading at half-time and winning after full-time (1/1).