Górnik Zabrze vs Radomiak Radom: match statistics

I back the home win (1): Górnik Zabrze average 1.75 goals per home match and win 63% of home games, while Radomiak Radom score only 1.06 goals on average away and have just a 13% win rate on the road. Defensively the home advantage is clear — Górnik concede 0.94 goals at home on average, versus Radomiak conceding 1.81 goals away, a difference of 0.87 goals per match which translates to a goal differential of +13 for the hosts compared to -12 for the visitors on the road. Chance quality also favors Górnik — the hosts’ average xG at home is 2.09 versus 1.43 xG for Radomiak away (a 0.66 xG difference), and the hosts average 18.5 shots and 5.5 on target compared to the visitors’ 12.69 shots and 3.56 on target. In the last 5 matches both teams collected an average of 2 points per game, but Górnik scored 5 and conceded 3 in their last five, while Radomiak scored 7 and conceded 5, indicating more volatile results from the visitors at the expense of weaker away defense. Considering the higher xG, greater number of chances and lower home goals conceded, I assess the probabilities as: home 65%, draw 20%, away 15%.

Both teams have high seasonal BTTS rates: Górnik 71% and Radomiak 69%, clearly above the league average of 56% and strongly favoring goals from both sides. Clean sheets are rare – 18% for Górnik and 19% for Radomiak – and seasonally Górnik scores 1.94 and concedes 1.06, while Radomiak scores 1.06 and concedes 1.81, so both teams have a real ability to score and to concede. xG and shot stats confirm this picture: Górnik has xG_for 1.62 and xG_against 1.34 with 4.65 shots on target, Radomiak has xG_for 1.43 and xG_against 1.76 with 3.56 shots on target, meaning both sides create and allow chances. The only weaker signal is that in Górnik’s last 5 matches only 20% featured BTTS, while Radomiak has 60%, which slightly reduces confidence, but the advantage of seasonal indicators and low clean sheet rates leans toward BTTS - Yes with an estimated probability of around 76%.

The model combines the attacker xG with the opponent’s defensive xG: Górnik has an attacking xG of 1.62, Radomiak’s defense concedes 1.76 xG, yielding 1.69 expected goals for the home side; Radomiak has an attacking xG of 1.43 and Górnik’s defense 1.34, yielding 1.39 for the away side and a total of 3.08 goals. Górnik scores 1.94 goals on average at home, while Radomiak concedes 1.81 on the road; the historical percentage of matches above 1.5 is 88% for Górnik and 75% for Radomiak, which strongly favors Over 1.5. Górnik averages 14.94 shots and 4.65 shots on target with a 13% conversion rate, Radomiak has 12.69 shots, 3.56 on target and an 8% conversion, so the hosts have an efficiency edge. In the last 5 matches Górnik scored 5 goals (1.0 avg) and conceded 3 (0.6 avg), Radomiak scored 7 goals (1.4 avg) and conceded 5 (1.0 avg), which together support a forecast around 3.08 goals. Based on this I select the Over at the 1.5 line as the strongest signal (high 88%/75% historical and expected 3.08 goals), while Over 2.5 remains moderately likely.

The most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and a Górnik victory after 90 minutes (X/1). A draw at the break is common — the hosts had a half-time draw in 47% of matches, and in Górnik’s last 5 fixtures a half-time draw occurred in 80% (4 of 5). Górnik average 0.82 goals by half-time versus Radomiak’s 0.31 and led at the break in 29% of matches compared with Radomiak’s 13%, but after the interval the hosts score an average of 1.12 goals and have accumulated 29 points in second halves (an average of 1.71 points) versus the visitors’ 16 points and 1.00 point average. Additionally, the hosts’ xG is 1.62 versus the visitors’ 1.43; the hosts average 14.94 shots (4.65 on target) compared to Radomiak’s 12.69 (3.56 on target) and have a higher conversion rate of 13% vs 8%, which increases the chance of turning the draw into a lead. Based on this I assign a 26% probability to the X/1 scenario, 25% to 1/1 as an alternative, and smaller probabilities to the remaining outcomes.