Granada CF vs RCD Mallorca: match statistics

RCD Mallorca have clearly been in better form: they have won 4 of their last five matches and remain unbeaten, while Granada recorded 3 wins, a draw and a defeat. The visitors scored 13 goals during this period—more than twice Granada’s tally of 6—which points to greater consistency and attacking strength. Mallorca conceded just 3 goals in five matches, compared with Granada’s 2, so the hosts are also well organized defensively and could keep the game close for a long time. The average points haul from their last five appearances stands at 2.6 for Mallorca versus 2.0 for Granada, while the visitors’ higher league position is an additional argument in their favor: third compared with eleventh. Mallorca’s attacking edge supports a home win, although Granada’s solid defense increases the likelihood of a draw.

A scenario in which both sides fail to score is slightly more likely, as Granada have conceded just 0.4 goals per game in their last 5 matches and kept a clean sheet in their only available match of the season. Mallorca are in very good attacking form, averaging 2.6 goals scored across their last five appearances, but their average xG over that period is only 1.24, meaning the results have clearly outperformed the quality of chances created. Granada have averaged 1.2 goals recently, while Mallorca have allowed opponents just 0.6 goals and 0.63 xG per game. BTTS - Yes occurred in 0% of Granada’s last five matches and 40% of Mallorca’s games, compared with a league average of 45%, supporting the BTTS - No outcome, meaning that at least one team is expected not to score. The most realistic scenario appears to be a Mallorca goal, with Granada being restricted by the visitors’ solid defense, although the hosts’ good organization also leaves room for a Granada clean sheet.

In their last five matches, Granada averaged 1.2 goals scored and conceded just 0.4, while Mallorca scored 2.6 goals and conceded only 0.6. However, both teams’ attacking potential is lower than their results alone suggest: their average xG stands at 1.28 for Granada and 1.24 for Mallorca, while their opponents allowed xG figures of 0.63 and 0.92, respectively. The projected total of 2.37 goals points to a match with a realistic chance of producing 2–3 goals, but without strong grounds to expect four. Only 20% of Granada’s last five matches featured at least three goals, and their ongoing run without both teams scoring further supports the scenario of a controlled game. The strongest selection is therefore Under 3.5 goals, as even Mallorca’s strong scoring form is likely to come up against the hosts’ highly solid defense.

The strongest signal points to Mallorca leading at the break and winning the match, as they have won 80% of their last five fixtures, compared with Granada’s 60% win rate. During this period, the visitors averaged 2.6 goals per match against 1.2 for the hosts, while conceding only 0.6 goals compared with Granada’s 0.4. Mallorca held a half-time lead in 60% of their recent matches and scored an average of 1.2 goals before the break—twice as many as Granada’s 0.6. Their advantage remains clear after the interval: they average 1.4 goals and won the second half in 80% of matches, compared with Granada’s 0.6 goals and 40% second-half win rate. Seasonal data for this matchup is very limited, so greater weight should be given to the current run, in which Mallorca remain unbeaten while Granada have lost one of their last five matches.