Greenock Morton vs Livingston: match statistics

Livingston sit 5th, while Greenock Morton are 10th, and in their last five matches the visitors have collected 6 points from 2 wins, compared with the hosts’ meagre tally of just 1 point. Morton have failed to win any of their five league games, scoring only 3 goals in the process, and create very little at home: averaging 4 shots, 1 shot on target and an xG of 0.61. Livingston’s away defense allows an average xG of 1.07, clearly lower than the figure Morton concede at home, where opponents’ average xG stands at 1.49. However, the visitors have their own issues in front of goal, having failed to score and failed to hit the target in 100% of their away matches, so a draw remains a realistic outcome. Nevertheless, their superior overall form and defensive quality give Livingston a slight edge.

The strongest signal is Livingston’s very limited attacking potential: they have yet to score away from home, averaging just 1.0 shot on target and 5.5 attempts per match, with a 0% conversion rate. Greenock Morton keep a clean sheet in 67% of their home matches and concede an average of only 0.33 goals there, making it significantly harder for the visitors to break through. Livingston have failed to score in 100% of their away matches, while BTTS has not landed in either Morton’s home games or Livingston’s away fixtures so far. The last five matches have seen the hosts average only 0.6 goals, but their superior chance quality is evident from a home xG of 1.64 compared with Livingston’s away xG of 0.83. The low league-wide BTTS rate of 36% and the average of 1.76 goals per match further support a scenario in which at least one team fails to score, making BTTS - No the preferred outcome.

The match profile is clearly low-scoring: both teams have recorded 100% of their league matches below 2.5 and below 3.5 goals so far. Livingston have yet to score away from home, averaging just 0.83 xG and 1.0 shot on target per match. Morton look solid defensively at home, conceding an average of 0.33 goals and keeping a clean sheet in 67% of matches, although their last five games have produced just 0.6 goals scored per fixture. The league average is only 1.76 goals, while the projected 1.90 goals for this match does not point to a four-goal scenario. The strongest option is therefore Under 3.5 goals, as even with Morton’s advantage, the visitors’ limited attacking output should keep the scoreline under control.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Livingston win at full-time (X/2), as Greenock Morton were level at the break in 60% of their last five matches, compared with 40% for Livingston. During this period, both teams scored just 0.2 goals before half-time, against an average of 0.8 first-half goals in their matches, which clearly supports a cautious start. After the break, Livingston perform better: they score an average of 0.6 goals, concede only 0.2, and collect an average of 1.6 points, while Morton concede 1.0 goal and average just 0.8 points. The visitors' advantage in current form is also evident over the full matches: Livingston earned 1.2 points per game in their last five league rounds, compared with just 0.2 for Morton, who lost 80% of those matches.